Betsided

Padres vs. Giants Prediction and Odds for Monday, April 11 (San Diego is Starting Who?)

By Matt De Saro

San Diego Padres pitcher Nick Martinez returns to the Big Leagues after pitching in Japan. He gets the start today vs. the San Francisco Giants.
San Diego Padres pitcher Nick Martinez returns to the Big Leagues after pitching in Japan. He gets the start today vs. the San Francisco Giants. / Sam Wasson/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

There are many signs that an MLB rotation isn’t quite up to snuff when the season starts. One surefire red flag is when a guy who hasn’t seen real-game action in almost five years gets the nod for your fourth game of the season.

Enter the San Diego Padres and tonight’s starter, Nick Martinez. Martinez has not made an appearance in the Major Leagues since September 27th, 2017. That might as well be a million years in terms of time away from the mound in an MLB game. We will get back to him later. 

Alex Wood gets the start tonight for the 2-1 Giants after they took two of three from the Miami Marlins to start the season. Each of those three games ended with a margin of just one run. It will be interesting to see if the Giants can put some more distance between themselves and their opponents as the season progresses. As of now, they are 0-3 on the run line.

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Padres vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Padres: +1.5 (-165)
  • Giants: -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline:

  • Padres: +130
  • Giants: -140

Total:

  • Total 9.5 (Over +100/Under -115)

Padres vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

My prediction here has an awful lot to do with Martinez tonight, so let’s get back into his recent history in baseball. His last MLB gig was with the Texas Rangers, splitting time between the bigs and AAA Round Rock. He last pitched to a 3-8 record with an ERA of 5.66 and 67 strikeouts in 111 ⅓ innings. He then went to Japan, as struggling pitchers often do, where he went 10-11 with an ERA of 3.51. He continued to play mediocre ball in Japan before the Padres decided it would be a great idea to sign him. Why? I do not know. At least he had a solid spring with a 2-0 record and 3.00 ERA in 12 innings pitched. But I have a lot of doubt surrounding Martinez as a 31-year-old who hasn’t played in the Majors in a very long time.

Despite this major issue, the Padres are off to a strong 3-1 start to the season after taking three of four from the Diamondbacks. The wins got more and more impressive and San Diego took game four 10-5. In total, the Padre's offense looked good and scored 15 runs in their first four games combined. 

The Gants managed just 10 in their first three. But, I expect that to change tonight. With Martinez on the hill, I expect a fireworks show for the Giants in their home debut. The Giants also have a far better starting in Wood. The journeyman had a strong year with the Giants in 2021, going 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA. He added a very impressive 9.87 K/9 rate to that solid ERA.

Ultimately, I am not exactly confident that Martinez’s success in Japan will translate at all to the bigs. The Giants at home are always a strong play and tonight is going to be no different. 

Pick: Giants -140 to win

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

Home/MLB Odds