Betsided

Padres vs. Giants Prediction and Odds for Saturday, May 21 (Expect Enough Runs to Clear Low Total)

By Joe Summers

Carlos Rodon was a disaster in his last start and hopes to bounce back against the Padres
Carlos Rodon was a disaster in his last start and hopes to bounce back against the Padres / Scott Kane/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres in the second game of a three-game set today at 4:05 PM EST.

Carlos Rodon gets the call for San Francisco and he'll quickly want to forget his last start. After not surrendering more than two runs in a single outing, he got absolutely obliterated by the Cardinals. He gave up eight earned runs and 10 hits in just 3.2 innings of work. In his six starts prior, he'd only given up eight runs total.

As Rodon tries to get past an unimaginably poor outing, Joe Musgrove hopes to keep his steady performance going for the Padres. He's thrown a quality start in all seven of his appearances, amassing a 4-0 record and 2.20 ERA in the process.

Which starting pitcher has the edge? Can Rodon put last week behind him or will the Padres and Musgrove hand the lefty back-to-back losses?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find value in this Padres vs Giants matchup:

Padres vs Giants Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Padres +1.5 (-170)
  • Giants -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

  • Padres +130
  • Giants -140

Total:

  • 7 (Over -105 / Under -115)

Padres vs Giants Prediction and Pick

It's amazing how quickly one poor start can turn a stellar season into an average one. Carlos Rodon's ERA jumped from 1.80 to 3.49 after his disaster against St. Louis, and he's suddenly in just the 28th percentile in hard hit percentage. He still ranks in the 89th percentile in expected ERA and 96th in strikeout percentage, but he went from "Cy Young candidate" to "solid starter" in a hurry.

While the Cardinals lead MLB in OPS against left-handed pitchers this month, the Padres hit southpaws well too. They're fifth on the season in OPS against lefty's and Rodon will be in trouble if he can't force swings-and-misses. San Diego is 20th in the league in average strikeouts per game, so he should find things easier than against the disciplined red birds.

On the other end, Joe Musgrove just keeps rolling. He's 7/7 on quality starts in the 2022 campaign and ranks in the 94th percentile in chase rate and 92nd in walk rate, so he's able to avoid walks while generating strikeouts. San Francisco averages the second-most walks per game in MLB, so we'll see a strength vs strength matchup here.

The Giants have won that matchup in recent history. In five 2021 starts against San Francisco, Musgrove had a 6.07 ERA and only one quality start.

With the wind blowing out to center field and two quality offenses, I'm inclined to back the over. Both bullpens have struggled of late and I'm worried about each pitcher's chances against each respective offense.

Pick: Over 7.0 (-105)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

Home/MLB Odds