Padres vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 3 (Predicting the Return of Mike Clevinger)
By Matt De Saro
The San Diego Padres look to grow their lead in the NL West when they kick off a short two-game series against the Cleveland Guardians tonight.
San Diego has been one of the best teams in baseball over the last two weeks with a 10-3 record in their last 13 games. However, their recent success is a bit deceiving. Eight of those ten wins came against either the Reds or Pirates. They are two of the worst teams in the MLB. The Padres swept the Reds twice in the last 12 days.
That is not to say the Padres are bad, but I don’t know how good they are yet. The Guardians, meanwhile, broke an ugly seven-game losing streak by sweeping the Athletics in three games over the weekend.
Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, and Total
Run Line
- Padres: -1.5 (+110)
- Guardians: +1.5 (-130)
Moneyline:
- Padres: -150
- Guardians: +130
Total: 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Padres vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
While I think the Padres can win this game on most days, I have my doubts about their chances tonight. The reason for this is that their starter, Mike Clevinger, is making his first start post-Tommy John surgery. Clevinger went down in November of 2020 and hasn’t thrown a pitch in an MLB game since. I’ll admit,
Clevinger was putting together a fantastic career up until that point with a 3.19 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six seasons. But, Tommy John is tricky and I wouldn't necessarily trust anyone in their first game back from the procedure.
However, I can’t trust the Guardians either here with Zach Plesac on the hill. Plesac started the year off strong with just three earned runs in his first three starts. But there were signs that regression was on the horizon. He gave up three home runs in his last three games and has a lackluster K/BB ratio of 5:3.
I think based on my suspicions of these two pitchers, I will take the OVER in this matchup. The Guardians have the fourth-best batting average in the MLB and lead the majors in plate appearances per game. I think no matter what happens, Clevenger will be on a strict pitch count. This is helpful to us as the Padres have one of the worst bullpen ERAs at 3.97.
Pick: OVER
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