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Padres vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 15 (Back Marlins and Cy Young Sandy)

By Josh Yourish

Fans in a seat section named Sandys Beach hold up K signs as
Fans in a seat section named Sandys Beach hold up K signs as / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
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The Miami Marlins began their homestand getting swept by the Braves and now welcome the San Diego Padres to town. The Padres currently hold the second Wild Card spot in the NL at 65-52. Miami has been in freefall and are now 15 games under .500, 50-65. 

Tonight in Miami is the best pitching matchup in the National League as Joe Musgrove faces Sandy Alcantara. Musgrove was once the Cy Young favorite, and Alcantara has been the betting favorite for a while now. 

You can find odds for this game and for the Cy Young race at WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Padres -1.5 (+125)
  • Marlins +1.5 (-150)

Moneyline

  • Padres -133
  • Marlins +123

Total

  • 6.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

This is the lowest total on the entire MLB slate today and for very good reason. Both of these pitchers have had outstanding breakout seasons. 

Let’s start with the basic numbers, Musgrove is 8-5 with a 2.91 ERA in 20 starts. He has 124 strikeouts to just 28 walks. Alcantara has made 23 starts and is 10-5, has a 2.01 ERA and 145 K’s to 41 walks. 

Now, we can get a little more in the weeds, which reveals some more advantages to backing Alcantara. 

Musgrove’s ERA has been steadily rising from 2.09 at the beginning of July to a high water mark of 3.00 and then back down slightly. That ERA is much more in line with his fielding independent pitching which is 3.35. Musgrove’s expected batting average is only slightly better than league average, in the 61st percentile. HIs expected slugging is .347, in the 71st percentile of the league. 

Alcantara however, just recently had his ERA go over two for the first time since May, and his expected ERA of 2.76 is in the top 10% of the league. His xBA is 82nd percentile, and xSlugging is 87th percentile. 

Alcantara is clearly the better pitcher and the rightful favorite for Cy Young in the NL. 

Pick: Marlins +123 

Follow all Josh’s bets HERE

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