Padres vs. Mets Game 1 Prediction and Odds for AL Wild Card (2017 Aside, Trust Yu Darvish in October)

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11)
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) / John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets gave up their longtime lead in the NL East at the worst possible time; getting swept by their divisional rival Atlanta Braves in the final weekend of the season.

Now, New York finds themselves hosting the San Diego Padres in a three-game wild card series beginning Friday from Citi Field. New York would have loved to save their top tier starting pitchers for the NLDS, but at least they're in the postseason and playing at home.

For Game 1 the Mets trot out their first workhorse, Max Scherzer, while San Diego counters with Yu Darvish. 

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Padres vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

The Padres finished at 89-73 while the Mets won 101 games, but they both have the same path in a three-game series to move onto the NLDS.

It may seem surprising for Yu Darvish to get the ball first in this series over Joe Musgrove, especially considering the 2017 pitch tipping debacle in the World Series. However, that was an Astros team that we now know was cheating and has put a stain on Darvish’s otherwise pretty stellar postseason resume. 

Darvish allowed nine runs in 3.1 innings which encompassed two starts in that World Series, but only given up 11 runs in the other 29.2 innings in the postseason. He is a good playoff pitcher, but that is not what most fans stored away in their memory. He has also been ridiculously good in the last month of the season, pitching to a 1.85 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 39 innings across those six starts in September. 

Darvish's solid postseason numbers are a relatively small sample compared to Max Scherzer. Mad Max has 128.2 postseason innings under his belt, and going back to 2011, has a 3.22 ERA when it counts. He’s a World Series champion and I’m certain that a wild card round duel with the Padres and Yu Darvish won’t phase him one bit. 

Of course, all of the Game 1’s across this round will have great pitching matchups and low totals, but this is the one where I really love the under even with a total of just six. 

Pick: Under 6 (+100)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE