Padres vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 23 (Snell's Misery Continues)

Chris Bassitt has five consecutive quality starts and hopes to keep his hot streak alive against a struggling Padres lineup tonight at 7:10 PM EST.

San Diego is just 8-15 over its last 23 games and ranks 27th in OPS since mid-June. Blake Snell hopes to get his squad back on track but hopes and dreams only take you so far. The Padres are 1-9 in his 10 starts as he's compiled a 5.89 ERA on the road.

Can Snell find a way to give San Diego a much-needed road win or will Bassitt and New York take advantage of the mismatch?

To help find the value in this Padres vs Mets matchup, here are the consensus odds:

Padres vs Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Padres +1.5 (-190)
• Mets -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline:

• Padres: +110
• Mets: -130

Total:

• 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Padres vs Mets Prediction and Pick

Blake Snell has been extremely unlucky this season, posting a 5.22 actual ERA compared to a 3.59 expected ERA. But goodness gracious Blake, you do yourself no favors.

Kind of like Will Ferrell in Kicking and Screaming, Snell has no command whatsoever. He's walked 12 batters in his last three starts and ranks in the fourth percentile in walk rate. It's a lot easier for the other team to score runs when you give them free passes all game, and Snell's inability to quickly get through innings puts a ton of pressure on his bullpen.

Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, has a 3.22 expected ERA while ranking in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity. He's continually improved over the season, culminating in a 2.44 ERA in his last five outings, all quality starts.

The Padres did tag Bassitt for seven runs in 3.1 innings last month, but I expect the Mets' righty to get his revenge today.

With Snell's problems locating the strike zone and San Diego's recent misery, New York should be larger favorites. Back the Mets to improve to 17-4 in their last 21 as a home favorite, but I'll take the huge odds on the run line instead of paying juice on the moneyline.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (+160)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.