Padres vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Game 3 of NL Wild Card (Back San Diego Early)
By Peter Dewey
The New York Mets and San Diego Padres are the only teams needing a third game in Major League Baseball's new wild card round, playing their rubber match later tonight.
The Mets rebounded from a brutal showing in Game 1 to win 7-3 in Game 2 behind a strong performance from Jacob deGrom. Now, New York looks to advance to face the Los Angeles Dodgers with another win at home on Sunday.
Righty Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42 ERA) gets the ball for New York against All-Star Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA).
Both of these teams were expected to be World Series contenders, especially after the Padres dealt for Juan Soto at the league’s trade deadline. Who will get to continue their run?
Here are the latest odds for this matchup:
Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total
Padres vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Let’s start this game with how these two pitchers have fared against these teams this season.
Musgrove made just one start against the Mets back on July 24, allowing four earned runs on five hits in an eventual Padres loss. Bassitt, who made two starts against the Padres, had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde season against the Friars.
In his first start against San Diego, Bassitt allowed seven earned runs in 3.1 innings, although he did strike out six batters. The veteran rebounded in his second outing against San Diego tossing seven innings of two-run ball and striking out 11.
Bassitt has clearly been able to deliver punchouts against the Padres this season, but does he have enough to deliver a win for New York in this spot?
The Mets righty didn’t end the season as strong as they would have liked, as he posted two shaky outings against the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves with two solid performances sandwiched in between those games.
After New York blew the division, the team is desperate to at least advance to face Los Angeles. Winning 100 games to get knocked out in the wild card round would simply be brutal.
That being said, I think Musgrove gives the Padres a slight advantage on the mound here. He was one of the best pitchers ERA-wise all season long, and he has a 0.41 ERA in his last four outings.
The Padres bullpen doomed them on Saturday, so rather than back them for the full game, I’ll take San Diego on the moneyline in the first five innings with Musgrove on the bump.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.