Padres vs. Mets Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 24 (Is the Wrong Team Favored?)

The wrong team is favored in Sunday Night Baseball this evening and I love the value we're getting on Joe Musgrove and the Padres.

San Diego has four straight wins over the Mets by a combined score of 26-4 and are 13-4 in Musgrove's last 17 starts. He has an 8-2 record and 2.42 ERA this season.

Carlos Carrasco gets the call for New York after five shutout innings against the Cubs. He has a 1.56 ERA this month but posted a 6.37 ERA in June and has really struggled in night games.

Can Carrasco salvage a win for the home squad or will Musgrove wrap up a sweet for San Diego?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as we analyze this Padres vs Mets Sunday Night Baseball matchup:

Padres vs Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Padres -1.5 (+150)
• Mets +1.5 (-215)

Moneyline:

• Padres: +115
• Mets: -125

Total:

• 8.0 (Over +100/Under -120)

Padres vs Mets Prediction and Pick

In this game, the Padres have the better starting pitcher, bullpen, defense, and lineup. I don't understand why they're underdogs, but oddsmakers' loss is our gain.

Joe Musgrove has a 3.09 expected ERA compared to 3.97 for Carrasco, and he's 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA on the road. As an underdog, San Diego has won four of five behind him. Carrasco is in the 40th percentile in expected batting average and I can't trust him against a Padres' lineup that's finding its footing.

But the Mets' lineup is the biggest reason to fade New York. The Mets have been terrible of late, scoring a combined three runs total in their last three games as a home favorite, all losses.

San Diego is 12-6 in its last 18 as a road underdog and at the least, I believe they should be slight favorites.

Give me the Padres to continue the Mets' misery behind a strong performance from Musgrove and a mediocre one from Carrasco.

Pick: Padres (+115)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.