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Padres vs. Nationals Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 14 (San Diego Sizes up Washington in Finale)

By Ben Heisler

San Diego Padres right fielder Juan Soto (22) will play his final game of the season at Nationals Park Sunday afternoon.
San Diego Padres right fielder Juan Soto (22) will play his final game of the season at Nationals Park Sunday afternoon. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
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Despite trading for the best closer in the game in Josh Hader, and perhaps the best hitter in the game in Juan Soto at the MLB Trade Deadline, the San Diego Padres need a spark.

They've lost six of their last 10 games, and won't have star shortstop, Fernando Tatis Jr. for the remainder of the season and postseason after being suspended 80 games for PEDs.

In the short term, they must avoid a series loss to the worst team in baseball when they take on the Washington Nationals in the MLB early game on Sunday.

San Diego is a massive favorite on the road, but which of these struggling teams comes out on top?

Here are the latest odds for the first game of the day over at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Padres vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Padres -1.5 (-165)
  • Nationals +1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

  • Padres -280
  • Nationals +235

Total:

  • 9 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Padres vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

San Diego is finally seeing the Blake Snell they thought they traded for a few seasons ago, and it's a large part of the reason I'll lean Padres on the run line today.

In Snell's first 10 starts this year, he had only averaged 5 innings per start, pitching to a 5.22 ERA and a lackluster 2:1 K/BB ratio. Since the second half of the season, Snell's been a different pitcher: going 3-1 in 22.2 IP with a 1.19 ERA, with 29 strikeouts to just five walks.

He'll match up against right-hander Paolo Espino, who pitched well in five innings his last time out in Chicago; giving up a solo HR. The Padres' lineup, however, is set up to mash against him. Espino's MLB Statcast profile has a whole lot of blue on it, and while his numbers don't look awful (4.04 ERA in 75.2 IP), he's actually a negative replacement-level player with a -0.2 WAR, and an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.91; nearly a full run higher.

Baseball Savant (MLB Statcast)

With favorable hitting conditions, and a Padres' lineup that crushes vs. non swing-and-miss pitchers like Espino, I'll back them to cover on the run line this afternoon.

LEAN: Padres -1.5 (-165)

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

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