Padres vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for NLCS Game 3 (Joe Musgrove Gives San Diego Edge)

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres avoided a dreaded 2-0 deficit in the NLCS by beating Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 on Wednesday night. 

Now, the Padres are on the road in Game 3 as they look to regain home field advantage in this best-of-seven series. The Phillies’ bats have been hot as of late, especially at home where they took 2-of-2 against the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS. 

Lefty Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) gets the ball for the Phillies against All-Star Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA). Suarez lasted just 3.1 innings in his start against Atlanta, mainly because he issued five walks. 

Does he turn things around at home in Game 3 of the NLCS? Here’s a look at the latest odds: 

Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Padres vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Musgrove has been terrific this postseason, allowing just seven hits and two earned runs across 13.0 innings of work. He held the New York Mets to just one hit across seven shutout innings in the wild card round. 

That’s a lot better than Suarez, who was shaky in Game 1 of the NLDS even though he only allowed one earned run. 

The Padres have been average against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 18th in OPS, but I’m not sure Suarez pitches deep into this game, leaving the awful Phillies bullpen to hold onto a lead or even keep this game close. 

Musgrove did allow six runs in his lone start against the Phillies this season, but overall his numbers didn’t change much on the road (3.01 ERA) versus at home (2.86 ERA). 

Essentially, my pick in this game is coming down to who I believe in more as a starter, and that’s certainly Musgrove. Couple that with a shaky Phillies bullpen, and I think the Padres can steal Game 3. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.