Padres vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 17 (Phillies Win High-Scoring Battle)

The 17-18 Philadelphia Phillies host the 22-13 San Diego Padres in the first game of a three-game series tonight at 6:45 PM EST.

Philadelphia hasn't officially announced a starter, but it seems likely Zach Eflin will return from the COVID list to make his first start since a May 1st meltdown in which he surrendered five runs in 4.1 innings to the Mets.

Mike Clevinger will make his third start of the year for San Diego. He's allowed five runs through nine innings thus far, though he's struggled with command and issued five walks. Perhaps more concerning is a notable decline in fastball velocity, as he's in just the 33rd percentile.

Can the Philly notch a fifth victory in six games or will the Padres get a road win?

Thanks to the odds from our friends at WynnBET, let's see where the value lies in this Padres vs Phillies matchup:

Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Padres: +1.5 (-180)
• Phillies: -1.5 (+163)

Moneyline:

• Padres: +104
• Phillies: -121

Total:

• 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Padres vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

The Phillies are getting hot. They just took three of four from the vaunted Dodgers and lead MLB in OPS in May. Over their last seven games, Philadelphia is averaging a ridiculous 7.14 runs per game as the over is 6-1 in that stretch.

Mike Clevinger used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he doesn't quite look like himself after returning from Tommy John surgery. His fastball velocity and spin rate are down considerably from the numbers he posted pre-injury, and while it's possible he just needs to shake off the rust, I think it's more likely the injury zapped some of the juice from his arm.

On the other end, Zach Eflin's 4.50 ERA may not show it, but he's been extremely impressive this year. He's in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity and 84th percentile in walk rate, so he's been elite at preventing hard contact while limiting walks. His 2.89 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests he's been unlucky and positive regression is coming.

As a result, I see value on the Phillies. The Padres have been impressive on the road, winning eight of their last 11, but five of those wins came against the lowly Reds and Pirates. Philadelphia is much more imposing than those bottom-feeders, and I expect them to stay hot.

But I also love the over. On top of being 6-1 in Philly's last seven, it's also 10-1 in the Padres' last 11 on the road. Expect both trends to continue but the home squad's offensive firepower to prove to be too much.

Pick: Phillies (-121) and Over 8.5 (-120)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.