Padres vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Friday, July 14 (Yu Darvish turnaround?)
By Josh Yourish
The San Diego Padres went into the All-Star break winners of five of their last six games to get to 43-47 which is firmly on the outside looking in of the playoff picture.
To avoid being buried they’ll need a second half like the Philadelphia Phillies had last season that ended with a National League pennant. The Phillies lost their last two before the break and are 48-41 in third in the NL East.
The pitching matchup will feature 5-6 Yu Darvish against 0-2 Cristopher Sanchez. Darvish has a 4.87 ERA in 15 trips to the mound and Sanchez has a 2.84 ERA in five starts.
The Phillies control a Wild Card spot and that’s what they’ll need to hang onto because the division is pretty securely in the hands of Atlanta. The Padres will be one of the teams gunning for that spot and the playoff push begins today, so let’s get into the odds.
Padres vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Padres vs. Phillies prediction and pick
It wasn’t a great first half for Yu Darvish, but he’s the pick to bring the Padres out of the break as they get a chance to reset their rotation.
He was particularly bad for the past month and half before the break. On May 11 his ERA was 3.16 after a good start against the Twins, since then he has a 6.59 ERA with a 4.51 FIP in eight starts with a 3-4 record with 42 strikeouts to 14 walks and seven home runs allowed.
San Diego has to be hoping that the all-star break was a reset for their underachieving roster as a whole, but specifically Darvish. The good news is that he has a 4.03 FIP and 3.68 xERA for the season and really only his walk rate is up from last season. I think he’ll have a solid second half.
I don’t think that Cristopher Sanchez, who has been a surprise for the Phillies to close out the first half, will keep it going for much longer. He has a 3.56 FIP and has allowed a home run in each of his last two starts.
It feels like hitters are figuring him out and across six innings of work against the Rays last start he gave up just one run, but only had two strikeouts. The Rays are really struggling to hit lefties right now, so that start isn’t too much of a positive sign.
The Padres have too much offense and too many hitters to do damage against Sanchez. It may not be smart to keep believing in them, but at least for this start I trust their pitcher more and their lineup is better. I’ll take San Diego to win in Philly.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change