Padres vs. Rockies Prediction and Odds for June 17 (We Need More Gore!)
By Josh Yourish
The San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies took four days off from each other, but now they’re meeting back up for another series after splitting their four game set last weekend. Since then, San Diego swept Chicago in four games. Colorado went the other way, getting swept by Cleveland at home.
The Padres travel to Mile High, riding about a mile high in first place in the NL West after usurping the Dodgers and now sit at 41-24. Colorado occupies the bottom of the division (27-37). Both sides await the return of key pieces from injury, Kris Bryant for the Rockies and Fernando Tatis Jr. for San Diego.
The Padres hand the ball to rookie phenom Mackenzie Gore and his 2.50 ERA, while Colorado counters with a lefty of its own, Kyle Freeland sporting a 4.39.
Odds are available at WynnBET Sportsbook
Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Padres -1.5 (+100)
- Rockies +1.5 (-120)
Moneyline
- Padres -138
- Rockies +128
Total
12.5 (Over -115/ Under -105)
Padres vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Look I get it, it’s Coors Field, its elevation, Manny Machado might hit a ball 600 feet, but 12.5 seems like an absurdly high total for a game with this type of pitching matchup.
Mackenzie Gore wears number one and it’s fitting because he is going to be an absolute ace in this league. His FIP is even better than his ERA at 2.38, he strikes out 10.7 batters per nine, he has some issues with walks and when he gets hit, he can get hit hard. His hard hit percentage is 40.3% well above the 35.6% league average, but it’s his fastball that is the reason he is going to be one of the best pitchers in the league sooner rather than later.
His fastball is tied with Clay Holmes’ sinker as the most effective pitch in the majors by run value at -13. He throws that pitch 63.6% of the time. For some added context that number is better than Corbin Burnes’ cutter (-12), Joe Musgrove’s slider (-10) and Sandy Alcantara’s changeup (-10). Those are the three favorites for NL Cy Young and Gore has a pitch better than anything they throw and he throws it more often than those three use their best pitch.
The Padres are hot, going 8-2 in their last 10 with a .292 batting average and a 2.57 ERA over that stretch. Gore will stifle the Rockies offense and the Padres will score runs, but not 13 on their own.
Pick: Under 12.5 (-105)
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