Betsided

Padres vs. Tigers Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, July 27 (Detroit With Value as Home Underdog)

By Joe Summers

Tarik Skubal has an opponent's expected batting average of .215 this month
Tarik Skubal has an opponent's expected batting average of .215 this month / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

Can we trust Yu Darvish on the road? He is coming off seven innings of one-run baseball in New York against the Mets, perhaps he's turned a corner?

Detroit ranks dead-last in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month, so Darvish's chances of another strong outing feel high. San Diego certainly needs it, entering yesterday's game having lost eight of 10 as road favorites.

The Tigers have questions to answer of their own about today's starter, Tarik Skubal. He was sensational through May, then labored through a poor June and early July before seemingly settling back in over his last few starts. Can Skubal return to the form that opened the season allowing zero earned runs in six of 10 games?

I'll try to find the answers and some value in this Padres vs Tigers matchup. Here are the consensus odds:

Padres vs Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Padres -1.5 (+135)
  • Tigers +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline:

  • Padres: -130
  • Tigers: +110

Total:

  • 7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Padres vs Tigers Prediction and Pick

Both pitchers here are due for some regression, just in the opposite direction. That gives us value on the Tigers.

Yu Darvish has a 3.28 ERA but 3.77 expected ERA. Per MLB Statcast's data, every single pitch he throws except for his curveball (which he throws the least often) has a higher expected batting average than actual batting average.

Meanwhile, Skubal has a 3.26 expected ERA despite a 3.88 actual ERA. His expected batting average from MLB Statcast this month is back down to .215, which is line with his incredible May (.210). If Skubal merely had a blip in the road during June and is more like the one we saw the first two months, then he has value for the foreseeable future.

Detroit excels in this spot too, going 7-2 outright in its last nine as home underdogs. The Padres have that whole "2-8 stretch as a road favorite" thing going on, so the Tigers are in a great spot to pick up another victory.

I'll back Skubal to get things rolling again and the Detroit lineup to find some success against Darvish.

Pick: Tigers (+110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

Home/MLB Picks