Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Back Joe Musgrove in His Return, Fade Patrick Corbin)

Looking for a fun way to bet on the Major League Baseball action on Tuesday night?

Why not take a stab at the prop market – specifically the pitcher prop market – where there are some great starters to back?

San Diego Padres ace Joe Musgrove is among those starters, as he’s looking at a second straight start against the Cincinnati Reds, who he pitched well against back on May 1.

I also am looking at New York Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt, who had an eight-inning gem his last time out. 

Here’s a look at the top props to consider for Tuesday, May 21:

Best MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 21

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Joe Musgrove OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
• Clarke Schmidt UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-170)
• Patrick Corbin OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-165)

Joe Musgrove OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Musgrove is making his first start in a few weeks after dealing with elbow inflammation, so the team may limit how many pitches he throws on Tuesday.

Still, I think he’s undervalued in his strikeout prop. 

The start of the 2024 season hasn’t been great for the veteran right-hander – he has a 6.37 ERA – but Musgrove looked great on May 1 against Cincinnati, punching out nine batters across six innings of work. 

The Reds have the seventh most strikeouts in baseball this season, and while nine K’s may be a major ask for Musgrove, five is pretty reasonable. Even with his elbow injury – and some ineffectiveness – Musgrove has three starts this season with five or more punchouts. 

He’s worth a shot at this discounted number if he can work into the fifth inning tonight. 

Clarke Schmidt UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-170)

How good has Clarke Schmidt been for the Yankees?

The young right-hander has a 2.49 ERA in nine starts this season, leading New York to an 8-1 record when he takes the mound.

Schmidt is coming off arguably the best start of his career, tossing eight scoreless innings and allowing just three hits in a win over the Minnesota Twins. It was the sixth time this season that Schmidt allowed two or fewer earned runs in a start.

Not only that, but the righty hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in an outing all season, putting him in a great spot to stay below that threshold on Tuesday. 

Seattle’s offense hasn’t been great in 2024, ranking 24th in runs scored and 22nd in OPS, so I expect Schmidt to stay hot and slow it down in this matchup. 

Patrick Corbin OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-165)

Washington Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin has become a must-fade over the last few seasons, and that’s exactly what I’m doing with his hits prop on Tuesday night.

Corbin takes on the Minnesota Twins in this matchup, who rank No. 9 in Major League Baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching.

While Corbin has put together some starts where he’s only allowed a few runs, the hits against him have been consistent. 

The veteran lefty has allowed six or more hits in eight of his nine outings in 2024, posting a 1.74 WHIP on the season. 

Minnesota should be able to get to him tonight, and the Nationals have let Corbin go, pitching him in five or more innings seven of the nine times he’s taken the mound this season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.