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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Back Trevor Williams vs. Mariners)

By Iain MacMillan

May 1, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Trevor Williams (32) throws during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports
May 1, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Trevor Williams (32) throws during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports / Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports
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Betting on baseball can be difficult, that's why we should look at all different options, including wagering on player props as opposed to sides and totals.

If you want a few player props to bet on for this holiday weekend, you've come to the right place. I'm narrowed in on three that I'm targeting for Saturday's slate. Let's dive into them.

MLB Best Prop Bets Today

  • Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
  • Trevor Williams OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)
  • Jordan Montgomery UNDER 1.5 Walks (-142)

Astros vs. Athletics Prop Bet

The Athletics are starting JP Sears on the mound today, who is a lefty. That means we can target a batter who has had great success against lefties, and the player I'm looking at is Yordan Alvarez.

Among all Major League Baseball players who have had at least 50 plate appearances against a lefty pitcher this season, Alvarez has the sixth-best batting average at .356. That makes him an ideal candidate to rack up some stats today so I'm going to bet on him to go OVER 1.5 total bases at plus-money.

Pick: Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120)

Mariners vs. Nationals Prop Bet

If you've been taking the OVER on the strikeout total for whatever pitcher is facing the Mariners, you've been winning a ton of money this season. The Mariners have a huge strikeout issue, striking out on 28.1% of their plate appearances. That's 2.0% higher than the next worst team.

So, we're going to continue to follow that strategy and take the OVER 3.5 strikeouts for Trevor Williams of the Nationals. He's not exactly a strikeout pitcher, averaging just 6.8 per nine innings, but he did record eight strikeouts against the Orioles earlier this month. We only need him to record four today.

Pick: Trevor Williams OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Prop Bet

No team is worse at drawing walks this season than the Marlins who have a walk rate of just 6.3%. That's the lowest in the Majors by 0.8%. That means we can feel comfortable taking the UNDER on Jordan Montgomery's walk total of 1.5.

Jordan Montgomery UNDER 1.5 Walks (-142)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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