Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Bet This Insane Justin Verlander Trend vs. Yankees)

Looking to bet on the Major League Baseball action on Tuesday night?

There are tons of ways to bet on MLB, from totals to moneylines to run lines, but I’m focused on the player prop market – specifically when it comes to pitchers – for May 7. 

There are two veteran starters that I think have very favorable matchups on Tuesday, as well as one young righty who could be undervalued even though he’s facing one of the best teams in baseball. 

Let’s examine these matchups and the three bets I’m placing for tonight’s action:

Best MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 7

• Zach Eflin OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded
• Justin Verlander OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded
• Edward Cabrera OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Zach Eflin OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded

Tampa Bay Rays ace Zach Eflin has been solid this season, posting a 4.17 ERA and a 3.65 Fielding Independent Pitching across seven starts.

The only problem? 

Tampa Bay is 2-5 in those seven games.

So, rather than back the Rays here, I’m going to the prop market for Eflin, who has recorded 18 or more outs (six or more innings pitched) in four of his six starts, including his lone start against tonight’s opponent – the Chicago White Sox.

Chicago is one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranking dead last in both OPS and runs scored this season, so Eflin should be able to work deep into this game. He’s also had a solid floor this season, recording at least 17 outs in all but one start. 

After giving up four runs in a loss to the White Sox earlier this season, I think Eflin will bounce back in a big way on Tuesday. 

Justin Verlander OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded

Justin Verlander is still thriving at age 41, posting a 2.08 ERA across three starts in the 2024 campaign. 

The veteran right-hander will take on the New York Yankees on Tuesday, a team he has historically pitched well against, especially when it comes to going deep in the game. 

Verlander has cleared 17.5 outs recorded in two of his three starts this season, throwing a season-high 7.0 innings in his last outing. But against the Yankees, he’s even better.

You’d have to go back to Sept. 30, 2011, to find the last time that Verlander didn’t complete six innings in a start against New York. Seriously. 

Given that history, I’ll gladly trust the Houston righty to make it through six tonight. 

Edward Cabrera OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera has dominated with the strikeouts so far this season, recording 30 in just 19.1 innings of work (four starts). 

He now takes on a Los Angeles Dodgers team that could get to him tonight with its potent offense, but it strikes out the 14th most among 30 MLB teams. Yet, Cabrera is only projected 5.5 K’s in this game despite putting up seven or more in three of his four starts.

According to Statcast, Cabrera ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout percentage, 89th percentile in whiff percentage, and 84th percentile in chase rate. He’s going to make things tough on any lineup with his wipeout stuff, and 5.5 K’s feels a touch too low for him after he struck out nine batters in just four innings his last time out.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.