Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Fade Blake Snell in 2024 Debut)
By Reed Wallach
With a loaded slate of Major League Baseball games on Monday, let’s hit the player prop market to target some pitchers I’m fading.
It’s been a shaky start for Nestor Cortes to start 2024, and it may not get better on Monday I believe that Blake Snell may get off to a shaky start in his first time on the mound as a member of the San Francisco Giants.
Meanwhile, the Astros will lean on Framber Valdez on Monday against the Rangers in a battle of two World Series contenders, but this is a tricky matchup against the elite lineup of Texas. Here’s how I’m focused on Valdez’s strikeout props on Monday as well as two others!
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Best MLB Prop Bets for Today, April 8th
- Nestor Cortes UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
- Framber Valdez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
- Blake Snell OVER 1.5 Walks
Nestor Cortes UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
‘Nasty Nestor’ has struggled so far this season, failing to pitch more than five innings and allowing 13 hits on just seven strikeouts across both outings.
He’ll face a Marlins team that hasn’t shown much pop at the plate so far, but one that is fairly disciplined. The team is right around the big league average in strikeout rate, and given Cortes's inability to generate whiffs, his strikeout percentage is down 10% thus far relative to last year, we may need to start adjusting this strikeout prop down.
Framber Valdez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
Last season, the Rangers ranked top five in the bigs in OPS against lefties, making this a tricky outing for Valdez. He has faced Texas plenty of times and has pitched to a 2.90 ERA across 16 appearances, but his numbers to start this season are a bit concerning. Despite pitching to a 2.19 ERA this season, his xERA is 4.09 and his walk rate is up from 7% to 12%. It’s also worth noting that Texas is in the bottom five in the league in strikeouts this season, the lineup is incredibly disciplined.
If the Rangers can get to Valdez early, this could also be a shortened outing.
Blake Snell OVER 1.5 Walks
Snell will make his first start of the season against the Washington Nationals for the San Francisco Giants and I’m going to side with some rust for the reigning Cy Young winner.
Despite being lights out in 2023, Snell isn’t without flaws, posting a walk rate north of 13% this season. I’ll bank on some lack of control for the former Padres ace after signing with the Giants just a few weeks ago and missing the beginning of the season as he plays himself into shape.
Snell may be on a short leash in this one, but given his big spin rate on his curveball, I think the Nationals can coax a few bases out of this one.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.