Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Freddy Peralta Gets Back on Track)

There are plenty of aces on the mound in Major League Baseball on Wednesday, and it’s only right if we honor them with some player props, right?

It’s hard to find something I love more when betting on baseball than taking a starter to have a good game, especially if they’ve been hot so far that season. 

Well, tonight there are a couple of players who fit that description, including Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta, who has been an elite strikeout pitcher in 2024. 

Here’s how to bet on him, and two other young stars, on May 22:

Best MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 22

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Freddy Peralta OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
• Tarik Skubal UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (+100)
• Jared Jones OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-160)

Freddy Peralta OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Freddy Peralta has a tough matchup with the Miami Marlins – who don’t strikeout a lot – on Wednesday night, but I’m not going to fade one of baseball’s top K artists in this one. 

Peralta has 64 punch outs in 49.2 innings of work this season, clearing 6.5 K’s in six of his nine starts. He did fall short of this number against the Houston Astros – the best team in MLB when it comes to avoiding strikeouts – but he still picked up six K’s in just five innings of work. 

In 2024, Peralta ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff percentage and the 89th percentile in strikeout percentage, elite numbers for any pitcher. He’s also only fallen short of this prop in the three starts that he failed to pitch more than five innings.

I think he’ll be able to work deep into the game tonight against a Miami team that ranks 29th in MLB in OPS and 22nd in runs scored.

Tarik Skubal UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (+100)

Tarik Skubal has arguably been the best starter in the American League this season, and the Detroit Tigers ace is looking to shut down the Kansas City Royals for the second time this season.

In his first outing against Kansas City, Skubal allowed just one run and four hits in seven innings of work – one of the six times this season he’s allowed four or fewer hits.

While he’s plus money to do that again on Wednesday, I think it’s a steal, especially since Skubal is coming off six innings of one-hit ball in his last outing, snapping a two-game streak where he failed to hit this prop. 

Kansas City has been great at home in 2024, but Skubal is toting a 1.80 ERA and 0.78 WHIP coming into this start. I’ll trust him to slow down the Royals. 

Jared Jones OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-160)

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Jared Jones has been a revelation in 2024, and he’ll look to keep that going against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night.

Jones comes into this start with a 2.89 ERA on the season, pitching six or more innings in three straight starts, including six of his nine outings on the season.

That’s what he’ll need to do on Wednesday to clear this prop, and I think he has a favorable matchup with a Giants team that ranks 16th in MLB in OPS and 18th in runs scored. 

Jones faced the Giants earlier this season, tossing five innings of three-run ball, but he’s seen the Pirates extend the leash for him in the month of May.

Jones threw just 83 pitches in that outing against San Francisco, but since then he has two starts with over 90 pitches, including a 96-pitch game on May 4. 

In fact, there is just one start this season where Jones threw 85 or more pitches and didn’t clear six innings. He threw 89 pitches and went 5.2 innings in his MLB debut. 

I expect the rookie to have a longer leash than he did the first time around with San Francisco.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.