Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Jack Flaherty, Paul Skenes Among Best Strikeout Bets)

When it comes to betting on Major League Baseball, I enjoy very few things more than a good pitcher prop. 

Luckily for me, there are plenty of great pitchers on the mound on Thursday despite there only being eight games to bet since it’s a travel day. 

Zack Wheeler, who is in the running for the NL Cy Young award, Jack Flaherty, and rookie Paul Skenes are all starters that I’m looking to target to have big games on Thursday afternoon/night. 

Here’s how to bet these aces in the prop market:

Best MLB Prop Bets for Thursday, May 23

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
• Zack Wheeler to Record a Win (+100)
• Paul Skenes OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Detroit Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has quietly been one of the better strikeout pitchers in Major League Baseball this season, posting 72 K’s in 54.2 innings of work. 

Flaherty’s strikeout prop is set at just 5.5 on Thursday against the Toronto Blue Jays, who are solid at avoiding the punchout, recording the second-fewest K’s in baseball this season. 

However, Flaherty has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in eight of his nine starts, ranking in the 97th percentile in whiff percentage, 95th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 74th percentile in chase rate. That’s one of the best profiles in MLB.

If Flaherty can work into the sixth inning in this game, I think he’ll naturally be in the mix to clear this prop since he’s punched out seven-plus hitters in six of nine starts in 2024.

Zack Wheeler to Record a Win (+100)

Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies have a dream matchup with the Texas Rangers on Thursday. 

Not only are the Phillies heavily favored, but Wheeler is going up against lefty Andrew Heaney, who comes into this start with a 0-5 record and a 4.43 ERA. The Rangers are just 1-8 when Heaney takes the mound in 2024.

That sets up Wheeler in a good spot to pick up a win, something he’s done in every game Philly has won that he’s also started. The Phils are just 5-5 in his 10 starts, but Wheeler is 5-3, posting a 2.52 ERA as well. 

Wheeler has allowed over three earned runs in just two of his 10 starts, and I think the Philly offense will give him plenty of run support against Heaney. Rather than laying the moneyline price on the Phillies, I’ll take Wheeler to get the win at even money. 

Paul Skenes OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

When the No. 1 prospect in baseball takes the mound, we have to bet on him, right? 

Skenes gets the ball against the San Francisco Giants in an early afternoon tilt, and he’s looking to clear 7.5 punchouts for the second time in three starts.

The rookie had seven K’s across four innings in his first outing of his career, but he turned in a gem in his second outing, tossing six innings of no-hit ball while striking out 11 batters. 

If he can find a middle ground between those starts, he’s a great bet to clear 7.5 punchouts against a San Francisco team that averages nearly eight strikeouts per game this season.

Skenes threw 100 pitches in his last start, so we know the Pirates are willing to let him work deeper into games. That’s a good sign for any of the OVERs on his props on Thursday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.