Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Kutter Crawford in Line for Big Outing vs. Cardinals)

It’s Saturday and we have 15 Major League Baseball games on the docket, as expected for the weekend. 

With plenty of matchups to choose from, I’m eyeing three pitcher related props in the strikeout department as my best path forward, including fading the Cardinals lineup against Red Sox flame thrower Kutter Crawford. 

I’m on Crawford’s K prop as well as Luis Severino and Bryce Elder, which you can find below!

Best MLB Prop Bets on Saturday, May 18th

• Luis Severino UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts
• Bryce Elder UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts
• Kutter Crawford OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Luis Severino UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts

Severino has been rock solid in the Mets rotation this season, but his walk rate suppresses his strikeout marks. 

He is walking more than 10% of batters, which is forcing him to waste pitches and be pulled from the game earlier. Despite finding renewed life on his fastball – he is in the 93rd percentile in run value – he is under this mark in five of eight starts this season. 

Further, the Marlins do an excellent job of putting the ball in play against right handed pitching. Miami has the third lowest strikeout mark against righties this season, so I believe the team can limit Severino’s ability to punch them out.

Bryce Elder UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts

Elder is a massive regression candidate as the season continues, posting an xERA of 5.24 that is far higher than his ERA of 4.79 with a low strikeout rate of just 17.4%.

The Braves starter is struggling to punch out batters this season and is allowing a ton of hard contact, ninth percentile in hard-hit percentage. The Padres are a disciplined unit, top five in walk rate, and can put pressure on Elder quickly, who is 16th percentile in chase percentage. 

I think this is an abbreviated outing from Elder, and the Padres send him to the dugout early, keeping him under his strikeout prop. 

Kutter Crawford OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Crawford has gone over this mark in five of nine starts this season, a modest number, but this matchup suits him very well against a spiraling Cardinals lineup that has a ton of left handers in the expected lineup. 

The righty overpowers left handed hitters, striking out nearly 28% of left handed batters in addition to having a filthy pitch arsenal already. 

I’ll grab the + money price on him to strikeout six or more batters. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.