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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Target Matt Olson, Javier Baez)

Looking at the best MLB prop bets to consider for Tuesday, April 16. 

By Shelby Dermer

Apr 14, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) hits a single against the Marlins.
Apr 14, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson (28) hits a single against the Marlins. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
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Here are some prop bets to consider for a full slate of action on the diamond for Tuesday, April 16, including a pair of plus-money recommendations. 

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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today

  • Javier Baez OVER 0.5 Hits
  • Ranger Suarez UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed
  • Austin Riley OVER 0.5 RBI

Javier Baez OVER 0.5 Hits

Baez hasn’t lived up to the six-year, $140 million contract he inked with the Detroit Tigers prior to the 2022 season and is coming off a year where he hit just .222. Baez is off to another slow start this season with a .149/.160/.213 slash line through 14 games.

However, Baez has a hit in back-to-back games and is facing a pitcher Tuesday he’s had success against in the past. Rangers’ right-hander Jon Gray has allowed 15 hits in just 12 ⅓ innings over three stars this season. In six career at-bats against Gray, Baez is 4-for-6 with a double and a homer. 

Ranger Suarez UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed 

A nice plus-money payout for a starting pitcher coming off his best start of the season. Suarez twirled six innings of shutout baseball, permitting just two hits, in his last outing on April 11 vs. Pittsburgh. 

Suarez now faces a middle-of-the-road Colorado offense that is 14th in the majors in team batting average but 22nd away from Coors Field. Colorado is also 21st in baseball against left-handed pitching (.227) and members of the Rockies’ lineup have combined to go 7-for-37 (.189) against Suarez lifetime with just a pair of extra-base hits. Colorado has been held to one run or fewer five times on the road this season. 

The plus-money payout makes this a best bet. However, Suarez to under 5.5 hits allowed on Tuesday (-165 at DraftKings) was considered. Suarez hasn’t allowed more than four hits in any start this season. 

Austin Riley OVER 0.5 RBI

Facing the Atlanta Braves’ lineup is the furthest thing from a remedy for a struggling starting pitcher, but that’s what’s in front of Houston right-hander Hunter Brown on Tuesday. 

In his last outing, Brown didn’t make it out of the first inning, giving up 11 hits and nine earned runs in just ⅔ innings of work against Kansas City April 11 (an MLB record for most hits allowed in less than an inning). 

Brown has limited history against the Atlanta lineup, but Matt Olson is 2-for-3 against him with an RBI double under his belt. Olson has smashed right-handed pitching so far in 2024 (.324)  with seven extra-base hits and eight knocked in. Hitting third in the order, Olson should come to the plate with opportunities to knock in a run with the top of the Atlanta lineup setting the table at a high rate. The Braves are No. 1 in baseball in a slew of offensive categories, but most importantly for this bet they lead the way in on-base percentage (.364). 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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