Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Trust Freddy Peralta, Dean Kremer on Tuesday)

Breaking down the best prop bets for Major League Baseball on Tuesday, April 30.
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51).
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51). / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

There is no better way to bet on Major League Baseball than dabbling in the prop market, and there are a few players that I'm targeting to have big games on Tuesday night.

Per usual, my main focus is on pitching matchups, and we have some ace-level starters on the mound in this slate, including Freddy Peralta, who makes the cut for today's props.

Let's dive into the picks for tonight's action:

Best MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday, April 30

  • Dean Kremer UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
  • Freddy Peralta OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
  • Seattle Mariners-Atlanta Braves No Run First Inning

Dean Kremer UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed

This may seem like a strange bet since Baltimore Orioles starter Dean Kremer has a 4.61 ERA on the season, but he hasn’t given up a ton of hits. 

In four of Kremer’s five starts, he’s allowed five or fewer hits, including three games where he allowed three hits or less. Yes, there is a 10-hit game sprinkled in there, but it now seems more like an anomaly than the norm for the righty. 

Tuesday’s matchup with the New York Yankees won’t be an easy one, but New York may exploit Kremer’s issue in giving up the long ball (six homers allowed this season), which could lead to him being chased early while still falling short of this prop. 

For a pitcher with such a high ERA, Kremer has an impressive 1.06 WHIP. I don’t mind an UNDER here given his body of work this season. 

Freddy Peralta OVER 6.5 Strikeouts

Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta has a favorable matchup on Tuesday night against a Tampa Bay Rays team that has the seventh-most strikeouts in Major League Baseball this season. 

Peralta picked up seven or more strikeouts in each of his first four starts of the season, but he fell short of this number in his last outing (five strikeouts) after he lasted just 4.2 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

I think the righty bounces back in a big way in this one, and his advanced numbers tell us he’s one of the best pitchers at getting the swing and miss this season. Peralta ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff percentage and the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage. 

With this number dropping below seven, it’s a perfect time to buy low on the Brewers ace. 

Seattle Mariners-Atlanta Braves No Run First Inning

Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners have been one of the best No Run First Inning (NRFI) teams in Major League Baseball, hitting it 62 percent of the time this season. 

Across six starts, Castillo has allowed just one run in the first inning, and he’s posted three straight starts with at least six innings pitched and two or fewer earned runs. 

On the other side, Reynaldo Lopez has been lights out for the Atlanta Braves, putting up an impressive 0.72 ERA on the season. 

In four starts, he’s allowed just one total baserunner in the first inning (it came on a walk) while striking out six batters. 

We have to lay some juice with this NRFI, but it’s worth it with these starters on the mound.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.