Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Trust Jack Flaherty, Zack Wheeler to Dominate)

Looking to bet on the prop market in Major League Baseball on Monday?

With 10 games on the docket, there are a bunch of matchups to target, and I’m eyeing a few key starting pitchers to continue to pitch well early on in this season. 

One of the props for tonight is for Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, who has an afternoon start against the San Francisco Giants, and there is an NRFI/YRFI play that has hit at a 68 percent clip which is a must-bet. 

Let’s break down each of these plays and the odds for Monday’s action:

Best MLB Prop Bets for Monday, May 6

• Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
• Zack Wheeler UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed
• Seattle Mariners-Minnesota Twins NRFI

Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 Strikeouts

Detroit Tigers starter Jack Flaherty appears to have put the injuries behind him and is suddenly showing why he is one of the game’s best starters. 

This season, Flaherty has been a strikeout machine, punching out 50 batters in 36.0 innings of work, clearing 5.5 strikeouts in five of his six starts (the one he missed he finished with exactly five). 

That gives him a terrific floor entering his start against the Cleveland Guardians on Monday. Cleveland has avoided the punch out this season (26 in MLB), but this number is too low for the starter who is leading Major League Baseball in K’s per nine innings this season. 

Flaherty struck out 14 batters in his last game, and he’s also pitching well overall, posting a 2.85 Fielding Independent Pitching in 2024. I think he’s going to go deep enough into this one to clear 5.5 K’s for the sixth time in seven starts. 

Zack Wheeler UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed

Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has been lights out in 2024, posting a 1.91 ERA and 2.61 Fielding Independent Pitching in his seven starts.

Yet, the Phillies are just 3-4 in those games.

So, I’m looking to the prop market to back Wheeler, who has allowed just seven hits and one earned run over his last three outings (18.1 innings of work). 

The San Francisco Giants – Wheeler’s opponent today – are just 19th in the league in OPS, and I think they’ll struggle against the righty who has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his seven starts in 2024. 

We’re getting this prop at plus money, which I think is a great value given Wheeler’s dominance as of late. The Phillies ace enters this game in the 92nd percentile in expected ERA and the 90th percentile in expected opponent batting average. 

He’s been red hot, so trust him on Monday. 

Seattle Mariners-Minnesota Twins NRFI

The best No Run First Inning Team in Major League Baseball this season is…

… the Seattle Mariners!

Seattle has finished 68 percent of its games without a run for either side in the first innings, so why not go back to the well with ace Luis Castillo on the mound tonight? 

Castillo has a 1.29 ERA in the first inning this season, allowing just five hits in seven appearances. He takes on Minnesota Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson, who has yet to allow a baserunner in the first inning across his three starts in 2024. 

While I don’t have as much confidence in Woods Richardson as I would Castillo, the Twins youngster has posted a 2.45 ERA and a 2.20 FIP this season. 

I expect both starters to get off to strong starts in the first frame tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.