Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Trust Zack Wheeler, Fade Freddy Peralta on Friday)

Why not get the weekend started early by dabbling in some MLB player props on Friday night?

There are plenty of great pitching matchups to target, and I’m eyeing two aces – Zack Wheeler and Freddy Peralta – as my primary picks for this evening’s action. 

Here’s a look at the top MLB props, and their latest odds, on Friday:

Best MLB Prop Bets for Friday, May 17

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Freddy Peralta UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
• Kyle Hendricks OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
• Zack Wheeler to Record a Win (-130)

Freddy Peralta UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Milwaukee Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball this season.

So why fade him tonight?

Even though Peralta comes into this game in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage and whiff percentage, this prop is too high against the Houston Astros, who strike out the least amongst the 30 teams in MLB this season.

Houston averages just 6.57 strikeouts per game, and Peralta does have two games where he finished with just five punchouts so far in 2024. 

Houston doesn’t chase pitches off the plate and get itself out, and Peralta does rank in just the 39th percentile in chase rate this season. Since he’d need to strike out the Astros more than their game-long average during his start to clear this prop, I’ll fade Peralta tonight. 

Kyle Hendricks OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)

Chicago Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks made his best start of the season his last time out, tossing five innings of two-hit ball in a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

He faces them again on Friday, but I’m not sold on Hendricks having the same success this time around.

Before his last start, Hendricks had allowed five or more hits in all five of his outings, and he’s given up 39 hits in just 26.0 innings of work this season – good for a WHIP of 1.92. 

This is a trend that has been going on for years for Hendricks, as he allowed the most hits in baseball in the 2021 season, and has posted a WHIP of 1.20 or higher in four straight seasons (including 2024). 

I can’t back him against the Pirates on Friday, even though he did keep them in check earlier this month. 

Zack Wheeler to Record a Win (-130)

Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is due for a bounce-back game against the Washington Nationals after he was rocked by the Miami Marlins his last time out.

Wheeler still has a 2.53 ERA on the season, and I think he leads the Phillies to a win tonight.

Rather than laying the moneyline with the Phils, I simply want to take Wheeler to record a win, especially since he’s earned the decision in all four of his starts that the Phillies went on to win this season.

Washington ranks 25th in MLB in OPS this season, so Wheeler should have no problem shutting down this lineup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.