Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Trust Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin to Shine on Wednesday)
By Peter Dewey
There are plenty of ways to bet on the Major League Baseball prop market, but my favorite always comes down to some pitching props.
Wednesday’s action is no different, as there is one ace that I think could have a lights out performance and a young starter that we have targeted in a walks prop several times this season.
Rather than sweat who will win these games, let’s just wager on these specific players to keep pitching the way they have in 2024.
Best MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 1
- Zach Eflin OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Luis Gil OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed
- Zack Wheeler UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
Zach Eflin OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded
Tampa Bay Rays starter Zach Eflin has been a work horse this season, pitching at least six innings in four of his six starts.
Eflin has just one game where he’s failed to record at least 17 outs, and that’s despite the fact that he’s thrown 90 or fewer pitches in every game.
The Rays have a short leash with some of their starters, but Eflin is coming off his highest pitch count game of the season his last time out.
If Tampa is willing to let him throw 90-plus pitches, he’s almost a lock to get past this prop after throwing 6.1 innings on just 76 pitches back on April 15.
Milwaukee has been a tough offense this season – No. 3 in baseball in OPS – but Eflin is one of the AL’s better arms, posting a 3.73 FIP on the season. He’s also worked six innings in a game where he allowed nine hits and five runs (four earned), a sign that the Rays won’t pull him too early even if he doesn’t have his best stuff.
Luis Gil OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed
New York Yankees youngster Luis Gil has had control issues all season long, walking three or more batters in four of his five starts.
Gil has still put up solid numbers overall, posting a 4.01 ERA and 3.81 FIP while leading New York to a 3-2 record in his five starts.
He now has to face a tough Baltimore offense, but the team doesn’t draw a lot of walks (29th in the league). Still, Gil has a 1.33 WHIP for a reason. He’s walked 19 batters in 24.2 innings, and if he can work through five innings again in this start, he’s likely to allow several free passes.
Zack Wheeler UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has allowed four or fewer hits in three of his six starts this season, including his last two outings where he allowed just one hit in each.
He hasn’t given up a run over that two-game stretch, and now he gets a shot at a Los Angeles Angels squad that won’t have Mike Trout (torn meniscus) in the lineup.
On the season, Wheeler ranks in the 91st percentile in expected batting average against, the 71st percentile in hard hit percentage and the 81st percentile in whiff percentage. The Angels are going to have trouble stringing much together against one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.