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A Panthers Comeback vs. Lightning? Several Trends Say Series is All But Over

By Ben Heisler

Tampa Bay Lightning center Ross Colton (79) celebrates after scoring the game-winner in Game 2 vs. the Florida Panthers with 3.8 seconds left to go.
Tampa Bay Lightning center Ross Colton (79) celebrates after scoring the game-winner in Game 2 vs. the Florida Panthers with 3.8 seconds left to go. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
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Thoughts and prayers to anyone holding a Florida Panthers moneyline ticket from Game 2.

Tied 1-1 with only seconds to go in the third period, Tampa Bay Lightning forward Ross Colton caught a perfect behind the net pass from teammate Nikita Kucherov, delivering the dagger on the road to take a 2-1 lead with less than four seconds to go.

History is repeating itself in Southern Florida. For the second straight year, the Lightning went into the Panthers home building and walked out with a 2-0 series lead. The Panthers' top-ranked offense has again been stifled by the stout defense of the Lightning. During the regular season, the Panthers scored less than three goals just three times in 82 games. So far, it's happened twice in both games.

There are some noteworthy differences from a season ago. The Panthers finished the 2022 season with the league's best record, and this is the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs instead of the first. Unfortunately, based off the latest odds, as well as several notable trends, their chances to win the series may be on life support.

Lightning-Panthers Odds Take Drastic Shift Towards Tampa

The Panthers opened as a -160 favorite to win the battle for Florida over the Lightning at WynnBET Sportsbook. After losing both games and home-ice advantage, the odds have taken a seismic shift towards Tampa Bay.

The Lightning were a +130 underdog to upset the Panthers, but right now at WynnBET, Tampa Bay is a -400 favorite, meaning a $400 bet would profit $100. As for Florida, they're now available at +310 odds.

NHL postseason history has not been kind to teams down 0-2 in a series. Teams facing a two-game deficit in any series are 52-339 to come back and win the series; coming back just 13.3% of the time. If there is any sort of consolation, teams that lose the first two games at home actually come back to win 18.9% of the time.

Should the Panthers find themselves down three games to none after Game 3 on Sunday, only four teams out of 198 have come back to win a series in NHL history; roughly 2%.

In 2021, Florida got a crucial road win in Game 3 in overtime in Tampa Bay, winning 6-5 to bring the series to 2-1, but eventually lost in six games. The Panthers are currently small moneyline favorites in Tampa Bay for Game 3 at WynnBET Sportsbook at -115 odds.

Based on their regular season success, the Panthers could still offer a terrific value bet. Unfortunately, history as well as the odds to ultimately advance, are not on their side.

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