Pass-Heavy Offenses Winning at Incredible Rate This Season
By Matt De Saro
One of the most fun parts of sports betting is finding those little edges and advantages that you can use to your benefit. Big or small, whatever leg up you can get on the bookies is a powerful tool.
During my time scouring the innerwebs for such edges and statistical anomalies, I came across a little gem on Twitter. As per numbers from Greg Auman from The Athletic, NFL teams that allow opponents to throw for 300+ yards are winning just 30 percent of the time. Specifically, those teams are 23-54 on the season.
So far this year, there are five teams that “lead” the NFL in this tragic category. The Cowboys, Lions, Jaguars, Dolphins, and the Ravens each have played four games that they gave up 300+ yards passing. The Seattle Seahawks, overachievers that they are, have done it five times.
As of this writing, just one team has an average passing yards total of over 300 yards per game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady is leading this team to another Super Bowl if this keeps up and he went off last week for 368 yards against the Falcons.
Additionally, there are three teams that averaged 300 yards or more in passing per game in their last three games. Those teams are the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers, and Minnesota Vikings.
So, we have a list to work off now. The next thing we have to do is to cross-reference these teams with upcoming games and see where the passing yards and bad defense match up.
The team that really jumps out when we do this is the Green Bay Packers. While the Buccaneers don’t play any team on the “bad” list, the Packers are playing two in their last five regular-season games.
In Week 15, the Packers play the Ravens who are the worst in the league at giving up big games to opposing quarterbacks and they finish the season with a cakewalk game against the Lions. This is not to say that Aaron Rodgers is a lock to go over 300 yards or that the Packers automatically win even if he does. But, I feel good about the Packers in both of these games and don’t see them losing either straight up.