Patrick Mahomes Player Props for AFC Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is heading into a very tough game against the Bills' top-ranked defense.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is heading into a very tough game against the Bills' top-ranked defense. / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs close out what should be one of the most exciting weekends of football we have seen in a while. These two AFC powerhouses clash at Arrowhead on Sunday night with the winner going to the AFC Title Game. The Chiefs are coming off a big win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Bills beat up on the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round. 

This article will focus on Patrick Mahomes and his player props for this must-win game. Mahomes is coming off an epic performance against the Steelers in the opening round of play and will look to carry that momentum into Sunday night. Mahomes went 30-for-39 with 404 yards and five touchdowns. He added 29 yards on the ground off of three attempts. While the Steelers' defense is nowhere near as good as the Bills, it was still a big-boy game to get warmed up for this round. 

The full betting preview for this game can be found here. But, I wanted to dive deeper into Mahomes’ player props and make some predictions before game time. All prop odds listed are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes Props vs. Bills

  • Anytime TD scorer: +325
  • Player total passing touchdowns 2.5: Over+115/Under-145
  • Player total passing attempts 37.5: Over-130/Under+100
  • Player total passing completions 25.5: Over-125/Under-105
  • Player total passing yards 283.5: Over-115/Under-115
  • Player total rushing yards 25.5: Over-115/Under-115

Mahomes could struggle against the Bills’ D

While I consider Mahomes one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, he will have his work cut out for him against the best scoring defense in the league. The Bills allow just 17 points per game on average and allow a league-leading 274.6 yards per game. 

Let’s start with Mahomes TD prop which is set unusually high at 2.5. In Mahomes' last seven regular-season games, Mahomes went over this total only twice. Once against the Steelers and once against the Chargers. Two teams that are below average at defending the pass. In his last game against  Buffalo, back in Week 5, Mahomes went 33-for-54 with 272 yards and two touchdowns. Mahomes also threw two interceptions in that game. 

Comparing those numbers to Sunday night and the under on Mahomes looks pretty good in terms of TDs and yards. In his last game against the Bills, Mahomes couldn’t didn’t reach Sunday’s passing yard total despite the fact that he threw 54 passes! He hasn’t thrown more than 50 at any other point this season. 

I think Mahomes has a similar game to the last time these two teams met, interceptions aside, and I will be on the UNDER for his TD total and yards. The OVER in passing attempts is tempting at 37.5 as he has gone UNDER that total just once in his last three games.