Patrick Mahomes Poised to Break Incredible Betting Trend in Bills vs. Chiefs
By Ben Heisler
As NFL Week 6 lines first started to trickle out across several different sportsbooks, bettors were on the edge of their seats waiting to see where oddsmakers would hang the line for the marquee matchup of the week.
When the odds first came out, they broke a historic trend spanning 41 starts.
For the first time in his career, Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog. Mahomes had been favored in his first 41 home starts, including the playoffs, the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 12, 2022
The Buffalo Bills travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in a rematch of the epic AFC Divisional Playoff game a season ago. The Bills scored two touchdowns, including the go-ahead pass from Josh Allen to Gabriel Davis with just 13 seconds left, but never was able to possess the ball the rest of the game, as Travis Kelce aught a touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes in overtime to win.
The line first had the Bills as 1.5-point road favorites at Kansas City. While not all that surprising, what certainly shocked many bettors was the immediate move to the Bills at -3, almost assuredly making Patrick Mahomes a dog at home for the first time.
And yes, the narrative has already been beaten into the ground by Wednesday.
Did you guys hear, Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog for the FIRST time
— Reed Wallach (@ReedWallach) October 12, 2022
Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total for Week 6
Right now, the line has fluctuated throughout the week, going as high as Chiefs +3 at several books before settling back down to +1.5 and +2 consensus.
Do the Chiefs Deserve to Be Underdogs at Home vs. Bills in Week 6?
On this week's episode of "Stacking the Box," FanSided NFL insider Matt Verderame, Arrowhead Addict's Sterling Holmes and I debated whether the oddsmakers got this one right by putting Kansas City as a dog at home.
One question worth asking is when each of the quarterbacks are at their best, who's the best of the best?
Allen appears to be on his way to his first NFL MVP award, but Mahomes has already captured one in his second season, along with a Super Bowl ring in Year 3.
He also continues to put up phenomenal numbers this season.
Patrick Mahomes this season:
— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 11, 2022
— 4th in pass yards
— 1st in touchdowns
— 2nd in QB rating
— 4-1 record
Top __ QB in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/UAUMS8OqdE
Mahomes, while not coming out and saying it directly, also seems to keep receipts and humiliate teams ahead of games he's not supposed to win.
Patrick Mahomes was favored in 38 straight games.
— nick wright (@getnickwright) October 11, 2022
Then, he was an underdog to the (at the time) #1 defense in the NFL & Brady… he hung 41 on them.
Then, he orchestrated a 17pt comeback against a divisional rival.
Now… he’s an UNDERDOG AT HOME VS BUF!
THE DISRESPECT!!!
How to Bet Bills vs. Chiefs (Kansas City a Perfect Teaser Play)
While I won't fault anyone for buying in on Mahomes and the Chiefs as an underdog to cover, or even win straight up this week, I think my preferred method on this game is to tease the Chiefs past two key numbers: 3 and 7.
Right now, K.C. is a 1.5-point underdog, so by teasing it from +1.5 to +7.5, we force the Bills to still win a single possession game by a much wider margin. And Buffalo has not been good in the last two years winning single possession matchups; going 1-7 straight up.
Along with moving the Green Bay Packers from -7 at home vs. the New York Jets down to just -1, teasing them and the Chiefs past 3 and 7.
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.