This Patrick Mahomes Prop Has Huge Value on Thursday Night Football

You'd think the world would stop sleeping on Patrick Mahomes. I'm looking at you, sportsbooks.

Despite Mahomes' five-touchdown dissection of the Arizona Cardinals' defense in Week 1, oddsmakers are still giving bettors ridiculous value on his passing touchdown prop in tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns Over/Under

Right now, Mahomes OVER/UNDER on total TD passes is 2.5. I'm hammering the over. Here's why.

We've all heard of Mr. October, but allow me to introduce you to Mr. September:

It's worth noting that Mahomes is better than everyone on Earth in every month, but he's particularly special in the season's opening weeks.

In 14 career September games, Mahomes averages 328.9 passing yards and 3.3 passing TDs per game with a TD percentage (8.8%) that would easily be the best career mark in NFL history.

Mahomes has at least three TD passes in 12 of those 14 games, including in five straight.

Given that Justin Herbert guy isn't half-bad himself, the Chiefs and Mahomes will need to score as many points as possible tonight. A much-improved offensive line will alleviate the quick pressure he's felt against Los Angeles in recent years, and Mahomes will carve up that Chargers secondary like a juicy Thanksgiving turkey.

Don't sleep on Mahomes or he'll wake you up before September ends. Put your trust in the best quarterback in the sport and bet the OVER Mahomes 2.5 TD passes.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.