Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen: Which Prop Bets Should You Bet?

Jan 15, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts to a
Jan 15, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts to a / Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

I can’t wait for this game. I don’t care that this is like the fifth article I’ve written about this matchup. There’s just so much to look forward to with the Chiefs hosting the Bills. Can Patrick Mahomes conquer the Bills vaunted secondary? Will the Bills be able to stop the run? Can Josh Allen get revenge for last year’s AFC Championship Game loss? So many storylines. Each quarterback has some props worth paying attention to.

Patrick Mahomes Has Higher Lines

The first thing that jumps out at me when looking at the prop bets for this game is the fact that the line over at WynnBET for touchdown passes thrown is set at 2.5 for Mahomes. I’m not sure I like that.

The Bills allowed only 12 receiving touchdowns during the regular season, far and away the lowest number in the NFL. Sure, Mac Jones threw two on them in the Wild Card round, but that was after they were already up 27-3 at the half and coasted their way to a comfortable 47-17 win. 

Tom Brady threw for two touchdowns against this Bills team in an overtime victory on December 12. Outside of that game, there were  only two quarterbacks this season to throw more than one touchdown in a game against the Bills — one  was Mahomes on October 10, the other was a 43-21 blowout against Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team in Week 3 where Heinicke somehow managed two touchdowns.

No quarterback this year threw for three touchdowns against the Bills. None. And we’re asking Mahomes to do that in a playoff game to go over on his prop? I don’t like that at all. With a passing yards line at 283.5, I don’t like that either.The Bills gave up the fewest passing yards this season at 2,771, over 400 yards fewer than the second-least. 

Josh Allen Might Have More Room For Success

While the Bills boast the best pass defense in the NFL this year, the Chiefs certainly do not. The Chiefs gave up the 6th-most passing yards in the NFL this year at 4,273, which sticks out dramatically against what the Bills accomplished. Allen’s props are set at 1.5 passing touchdowns and 281.5 yards. I like both of those dramatically more than Mahomes’. 

Allen and Mahomes are both coming off performances of five passing touchdowns. Considering Allen only needs two touchdown passes to make you money and that he’s done that in all but four games this year, that’s a bet I’m willing to take. Even though he has posted low passing yard numbers a few times this year, Allen has thrown for over 300 passing yards seven times this year, including his last performance against the Chiefs. 

I like Allen to go over on both of his prop bets, and Mahomes to go under on both of his.