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Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 18

By Matt De Saro

The New England Patriots still have a shot to win the AFC East and need to beat the Dolphins in Week 18 to keep hope alive.
The New England Patriots still have a shot to win the AFC East and need to beat the Dolphins in Week 18 to keep hope alive. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
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The New England Patriots are back where they started in Week 1 with a rematch against the Miami Dolphins. This could be a revenge game for NE after losing opening week to Miami 17-16 as 3.5 point favorites. The thing is, the Patriots clinched a spot in the playoffs in Week 17 by crushing the Jacksonville Jaguars 50-10. Mac Jones went off with 227 yards and three touchdowns on 22-of-30 passing. The Patriots can still win the AFC East title if they win this game and the Bills lost or tie to the Jets in Week 17. However, it's possible the Patriots err on the side of caution and take it easy on their starters this week. 

As for the Dolphins, they saw their epic dash towards the playoffs end after getting brutalized by the Tennessee Titans 34-3. QB Tua Tagovailoa had 205 yards and an interception on the day and Duke Johnson managed just 49 yards on seven carries. I think that loss crushed this team and I would be surprised to see them put up much of a fight against their AFC East rivals. 

Here are the odds for this Week 18 AFC East showdown, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Patriots vs. Dolphins, Spread, and Total Odds

Spread:

  • Patriots: -6.5 (-110)
  • Dolphins: +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Patriots: -290
  • Dolphins: +230

Total:

  • 40 (Over -110/Under -110)

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Patriots are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games. 
  • The OVER is 8-4 in the Patriots’ last 12 games. 
  • The Patriots are 8-2 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games. 
  • The Patriots are 2-4 ATS in their last six games against the Dolphins. 
  • The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. 
  • The UNDER is 7-2 in the Dolphins' last nine games. 
  • The Dolphins are 5-0 SU in their last five home games. 

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction and Pick

While some coaches would be content with going into the playoffs with their starters nice and rested, Bill Belichickich isn’t just another head coach. Come hell or high water, he will not end the season on a loss to a division rival and will definitely want to lead the Patriots to yet another division crown. I think Belichick coaches this game as if it were Week 1 all over again, but having learned from his past mistakes. 

So, the Dolphins will have to beat a red-hot Patriots team that is going to be playing as hard as any other Sunday. Miami, however, might just be playing to save some jobs and a little bit of pride. I think there is a good chance that the Dolphins are over this season after getting so close and then getting crushed last week by the Titans. 

This game feels like it could be very lopsided. We have two teams that are on polar opposite sides of playoff contention and I don’t think the Dolphins have much left in the tank. The Patriots have always had issues playing in Miami and are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games, but, they have too much on the line to let this game slip away. 

Pick: New England Patriots -6.5 (-110)

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