Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 1 (Fade Both Offenses in Season Debut)
The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins will face-off in Week 1 of the NFL season for the third year in-a-row.
Last year, the Dolphins got the better of the Patriots, beating them by a final score of 17-16 in the opening week. Miami also beat New England in the final week of the regular season, by a final score of 33-24.
The Dolphins have some hype surrounding them entering this season. They acquired one of the best receivers in the NFL in Tyreek Hill, and new head coach, Mike McDaniel, is hoping to breath some life into the offense.
Let's take a look at the odds for this AFC East showdown, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, and Total
Spread:
- Patriots +2.5 (+104)
- Dolphins -2.5 (-128)
Moneyline:
- Patriots +132
- Dolphins -156
Total:
- 46.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. Patriots.
- Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in Miami.
- Patriots are 15-3 straight up in their last 18 Week 1 games.
- The UNDER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings between these teams.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction and Pick
All reports from preseason are indicating that the Patriots offense has been a disaster.
Mac Jones and the #Patriots first team offense this preseason:
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) September 3, 2022
- 7 drives, all against backups.
- 4 of those drives were 3-and-outs.
- 1 ended in an INT.
- 1 resulted in a TD and 1 a FG.
- 1 explosive pass play (45 yards to Agholor vs Carolina).
- 3 sacks, 2 that ended drives.
Part of that could be attributed to their longtime offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, leaving to coach the Las Vegas Raiders. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, two defensive-minded guys who failed as head coaches, are somehow going to be co-offensive coordinators this season. Seems like a recipe for disaster to me.
So, if Bill Belichick is smart, I think he'll likely try to play a slow, grind-it-out style of football. One that we saw at times last season, like when they took down the Buffalo Bills in Week 13 and Mac Jones through a total of three passes.
If they implement the same game plan in Week 1, I foresee a low-scoring affair.
I'm also not yet a big believer in the Dolphins offense, despite adding Hill in the offseason. They averaged only 20.1 points per game last season, which ranked 22nd in the NFL.
I'll back the UNDER in this AFC East rivalry.
Pick: UNDER 46.5
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.