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Patriots vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under and Prediction for NFL Week 5

By Reed Wallach

Mac Jones is looking to lead the Patriots to a win in Week 5.
Mac Jones is looking to lead the Patriots to a win in Week 5. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
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The New England Patriots came up short in Tom Brady’s return game last Sunday night, but the team has a much easier opponent on tap in the Houston Texans this coming Sunday.

Is there betting value in Mac Jones and the Pats, who are favored by more than a touchdown, or can the Texans hang tough at home against a rookie quarterback? 

Here are the odds, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook, along with our game preview.

Patriots vs. Texans Spread, Odds and Total

Spread

Texans: +9.5 (-110)

New England Patriots: -9.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Texans: +340

Patriots: -430

Total: 39.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Patriots vs. Texans Betting Trends

  • Bill Belichick is 22-6 straight up against rookie quarterbacks 
  • After going OVER in their first two games, the Texans have gone UNDER in their last two
  • The Patriots 4-0 to the UNDER this season

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

While it may seem contrarian to bet on points in this matchup considering the two offenses, I lean with the over. While Patriots head coach Bill Belichick should have no issue scheming up a defense to bottle up Texans rookie quarterback Davis Mills and the Houston offense, this total is simply too low at below 40 points. 

Since 2010, totals that are 40 or below have gone 37-28-2, an astonishing 61% clip. 

The New England offense looked sharp despite heavy rain throughout the game against Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football, and I envision the offense continuing to roll with a strong performance against a Houston defense that is bottom third in both defensive rush and pass success this season. 

With a total this low, one broken play can push this game into the 40's. We saw the Patriots defense feast on rookie quarterback Zach Wilson for four interceptions in Week 2, and we can be in for a similar showing in Week 5.

While that game didn’t go over, another turnover-centric game from the Pats D could lead to short fields and a greater than expected point count as Jones gets more acclimated running the New England offense.

Pick: Over 39.5, play to 41

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