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Patriots vs. Vikings Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 12 (Prepare for a Defensive Slugfest on Thanksgiving Night)

By Iain MacMillan

Nov 20, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon (9)
Nov 20, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon (9) / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
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The Minnesota Vikings suffered one of the most demoralizing losses of the season in Week 11 against the Dallas Cowboys, but now they'll have to turn things around quickly as they're set to face-off against the New England Patriots on Thanksgiving night,

The Patriots were seconds way from going into overtime with the New York Jets on Sunday, but Marcus Jones had other plans, winning the game for New England with an 84-yard punt return touchdown in the dying moments.

Let's take a look at the odds for this Thanksgiving night showdown, and then I'll give you my best bet for the game.

Patriots vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, and Total

Patriots vs. Vikings Betting Trends

  • Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games
  • The UNDER is 4-2 in the Patriots' lst six games
  • Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Vikings
  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against NFC North opponents
  • The OVER is 12-6 in the Vikings' last 18 games
  • The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams
  • Vikings are 4-1 ATS in last five games against AFC East opponents

Patriots vs. Vikings Prediction and Pick

If you are betting on an UNDER, what are you looking for? Bad offense and good defense.

Well, over each team's last three games, the Patriots rank last in the NFL in yards per play, but first in the NFL in opponent yards per play. That right there is enough to make me back the UNDER on Thanksgiving night.

In fact, their defense has been the best in the league by a wide margin. They're allowing only 3.7 yards per play, which is 0.7 yards fewer than the next best team. Just last week against the Jets, they kept Zach Wilson and company to only 2.1 yards per play.

You might think that the Vikings offense is explosive enough to do damage against New England, but don't let their 8-2 record fool you. Minnesota ranks just 19th in yards per play, averaging 5.3 yards per snap. That number is down to 4.9 yards per play over their last three games.

Strap in and get ready for a defensive slug fest on Thursday night.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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