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Peach Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State Prediction and Odds

By Matt De Saro

Nick Patti is in a tough spot on Thursday and will have to make his first start of the year against the Michigan State Spartans in the Peach Bowl.
Nick Patti is in a tough spot on Thursday and will have to make his first start of the year against the Michigan State Spartans in the Peach Bowl. / Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
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The No. 10 Michigan State Spartans were on their way to the CFP after beating Michigan, but losses to Purdue and Ohio State down the stretch put a halt to their championship aspirations. While this is no playoff game, the Spartans will still have their hands full with a very good Pittsburgh Panthers team in the Peach Bowl. 

The Panthers are here because of the play of QB Kenny Pickett, who was a Heisman Trophy fainlist this season. The problem with that is Pickett has opted to skip this game in order to prep for the NFL Draft. While the lack of Pickett will make this a far less interesting game to watch, the show must go on. The Panthers will start Nick Patti under center in place of Pickett. The Junior has just 140 yards all season on 12-of-14 passing.

Michigan State will also be without its best player in running back, Kenneth Walker III, who also opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL Draft.

Here are the odds for the Peach Bowl, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

  • Pittsburgh +2.5 (-110) 
  • Michigan State -2.5  (-110) 

Moneyline:

  • Pittsburgh +115
  • Michigan State -135

Total:

  • 56 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

  • The Panthers are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games. 
  • The OVER is 14-6 in the Panthers’ last 20 games. 
  • The Panthers are 5-0 straight up (SU) in their last five games. 
  • The Pantehrs are 1-7 SU in their last eight games against the Big Ten. 
  • The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. 
  • The Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. 
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the Spartans’ last five games. 
  • The Spartans are 6-1 SU in their last seven games as a favorite. 

Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

Patti will be under a lot of pressure in his first start of the season, but things could be a lot worse. The Spartans are rather weak in terms of passing defense and rank 130th in the nation in terms of passing yards allowed per game. Opponents are succeeding on 65.5 percent of their pass attempts and are averaging 337.7 yards in total offense against the Spartans.

Michigan State is also going to be without a Heisman caliber player with Kenneth Walker III opting to sit out. This leaves the Spartans without their most effective offensive weapon and the offense is left to rely on Jordon Simmons. The sophomore has 255 yards on the season and will be facing the sixth-best rushing defense in the nation. If the Spartans are unable to run, which is likely, it will put a lot of added pressure on quarterback Payton Thorne to put the team on his back.

As much as I want to take Pitt to upset MSU, this is just a tragic spot for Patti to be in. Sure, he knows the offense, but he has next to no on-field experience. I think with the two best players on each offense sitting out, there could be a lot of defense in this game. The total is at 56 and I think at least one of these offenses fails to get going and keeps this game UNDER.  

Pick: UNDER 56 (-110)

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