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Penn State Nittany Lions College Football Win Total Preview, Prediction and Best Bets

Fade the Nittany Lions in 2024

By Cody Pestino

Apr 13, 2024; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin walks on the field during a warmup practice prior to the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 13, 2024; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin walks on the field during a warmup practice prior to the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports / Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
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One of the most hyped teams heading into the 2024 college football season is the Penn State Nittany Lions. The new playoff format has given reason for many football minds to believe that Penn State can finally break through and make it into the college football playoff. The preseason AP Poll has the Nittany Lions ranked as the number 8 team in the country.

However, here's why I have some concerns of the Nittany Lions reaching its lofty goal that feels as attainable as ever in this new format.

Penn State Nittany Lions Win Total

  • OVER 10.5 (+140)
  • UNDER 10.5 (-165)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Penn State Nittany Lions Offensive Preview

The offense returns six starters from a season ago including starting quarterback Drew Allar and both their running backs, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

The key for Penn State in 2024 will be their ability to generate points in big games. In 2023 James Franklin's group generated just a combined 27 points in games against Ohio State and Michigan. Allar struggled mightily in those games completing less than 50% of his passes.

The Nittany Lions added wide receiver Julian Fleming from the transfer portal to try to give the receiving corp’s some help after losing their top target in Keandre Lambert-Smith.

If the team can rely on their running game to allow Allar and his new targets the ability to develop throughout the season, this can be an improved offense in 2024.

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Preview

Penn State will field another solid defense returning seven starters from a season ago. Former Indiana Head Coach Tom Allen was hired this off season as the defensive coordinator to take place for Manny Diaz, who took the head coach job at Duke.

The Nittany Lions defensive line is headlined by edge rusher Abdul Carter, who will set the tone up front. However, the unit will have some new faces at both the linebacker and cornerback positions since bringing in depth from the transfer portal. It's fair to have some questions, but Penn State's defense should be regarded as an elite one with Allen at the helm.

Penn State Nittany Lions Outlook and Prediction

While Penn State is sure to be in the College Football Playoff discussion, I'm not as high as the Nittany Lions as oddsmakers.

Penn State has come up short the past few seasons in their games against Michigan and Ohio State. Fortunately for them, this year they will only have to play one of those teams. This doesn’t mean their schedule is any easier. In order for Penn State to hit the over, Franklin's bunch will have to win two out of three games at USC and at Wisconsin as well as home against Ohio State.

In addition, the Nittany Lions will have to take care of business with the rest of their schedule which includes a Week 1 matchup on the road against West Virginia.

This is a far too tough task to clear a lofty hurdle set by oddsmakers. Bettors should avoid buying stock in the Nittany Lions and lay the juice with under 10.5 wins.

Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions UNDER 10.5 Wins -165

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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