Penn State vs. Michigan State Prediction and Odds: Back Spartans Defense at Home

Michigan State Spartans forward Gabe Brown.
Michigan State Spartans forward Gabe Brown. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY

The No. 19 Michigan State Spartans will host a 5-4 Penn State Nittany Lions team on Saturday afternoon in some Big Ten action. 

The Spartans only two losses on the season have come against ranked opponents in Baylor and Kansas, and they’ve won three straight heading into this matchup. 

Penn State, on the other hand, lost both of its games against ranked opponents when it faced LSU and Ohio State earlier this season. 

Here are the odds via WynnBET:

Penn State vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total


  • Penn State +10 (-115)
  • Michigan State -10 (-105)


  • Penn State: +400
  • Michigan State: -540


  • 130.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Penn State vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

Michigan State enters this game at 6-4 against the spread this season, but it is 5-2 ATS as a favorite. Penn State is just 3-6 against the spread, but it only has two losses by double-digits this season. 

Still, I think the Spartans are the side to back in this matchup. Michigan State has one of the country’s best defensive units, allowing just 63.9 points per game and holding opponents to a 42.8 percent effective field goal percentage (12th best in the country) and just 26.8 percent from 3 this season (24th in the country). 

On top of that, the Spartans are a top-10 team in terms of blocks per game and No. 16 in defensive rebounds per game. 

There aren't going to be a lot of easy looks for the Nittany Lions, who are 212th in the country in points per game 67.7 and turn the ball over 13.7 times per game (201st in the country). 

I think Michigan State wins this game easily at home. 

Pick: Michigan State -10 (-105)