Penn State vs. Northwestern Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 5

Well, the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions got their first ranked win of the season in Week 4 and continue to cruise through the early part of their schedule.

On Saturday night, they dominated Iowa 31-0 in the White Out game and looked like a College Football Playoff contender. 

The expectations are not nearly as high for the Northwestern Wildcats. In fact, there were no expectations, which is why Northwestern fans can celebrate a 37-34 win over Minnesota last week. That was their first win in Big 10 play in two tries this season.

We’re heading into Week 5 and for a greater look at the college football landscape check out BetSided college football betting expert Reed Wallach’s weekly column and preview. 

When you’re betting on this matchup, make sure to take advantage of this great promo in the BetMGM Sportsbook. Just sign up with the link below and place a $10 wager on this Big 10 contest between the Nittany Lions and Wildcats, then receive $200 in bonus bets instantly. 

Now, here’s a look at the odds for Penn State and Northwestern.  

Penn State vs. Northwestern Odds, Spread and Total

Northwestern vs. Penn State Betting Trends

• Northwestern is 2-2 ATS
• The OVER is 3-1 in Northwestern games
• Penn State is 4-0 ATS
• The OVER is 2-2 in Penn State games

Penn State vs. Northwestern How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 30
• Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Ryan Field
• How to Watch (TV): BTN
• Penn State Record: 4-0
• Northwestern Record: 2-2

Penn State vs. Northwestern Key Players to Watch

Penn State

KeAndre Lambert-Smith, WR: The Nittany Lions have one of the best rushing attacks in college football and now they have a great young quarterback in Drew Allar. They just needed somebody to step up as their dominant wide receiver and it looks like that’s going to be KeAndre Lambert-Smith. For the year he’s up to 21 catches for 286 yards and three scores. Against Iowa he had eight grabs for 66 yards and a touchdown. 

Northwestern

Bryce Kirtz, WR: Northwestern is 1-1 in Big 10 play largely because of Kirtz. He and Ben Bryant hooked up for 10 completions, 215 yards, and two touchdowns against Minnesota in Week 4. Kirtz has 17 catches this season for 274 yards and two touchdowns. 

Penn State vs. Northwestern Prediction and Pick

This is actually getting a little bit crazy with Penn State. Since the start of last season, the Nittany Lions are 13-3-1 against the spread which is the best in all of college football. They’re a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and have covered in 12 straight games. Their last loss ATS was to Michigan in Week 7 of last year. 

One of the biggest reasons is Penn State’s incredible run game.

The team is fourth in rushing attempts per game, which makes sense with it protecting big leads, but the Nittany Lions are also 20th in rushing offense and average 4.4 yards per carry.

Iowa did a decent job limiting Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton last week, holding both to under 3.5 yards per carry, but that is the best running back duo in the country and Penn State can just keep adding on to its lead late in games without throwing the ball at all. 

The other key to Penn State's success against the spread is its great defense. The Nittany Lions are first in total defense, and third in yards per play only allowing 4.1.

So, Penn State rushing for more yards per carry than its opponents have gained yards per play, that’s dominance. The team's secondary is excellent with Kalen King at corner and their pass-rush with Chop Robinson is one of the best in the country.

They’re averaging 3.2 sacks a game and only allowing 13.2 pass completions which is fifth best. 

Northwestern beat Minnesota by throwing the ball all over the place. Ben Bryant had 396 yards passing and four touchdowns. That’s not going to happen against the No. 2 pass defense in college football. There’s no way I’m betting against a team that has covered 12 straight games. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change