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Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 1

By Reed Wallach

Purdue quarterback Aidan O'Connell fires a pass in the third quarter against No. 2 Iowa on Saturday,
Purdue quarterback Aidan O'Connell fires a pass in the third quarter against No. 2 Iowa on Saturday, / Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY
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We are treated to a Big Ten showdown in West Lafayette, Indiana on Thursday night.

Penn State travels to face Purdue with both teams entering with lofty win totals and hoping to be contenders for a New Years Six bowl. Who will get off to a winning start this season?

Let's break down the odds with the Nittany Lions sitting as road favorites.

Penn State vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Penn State: -3 (-120)
  • Purdue: +3 (+100)

Moneyline:

  • Penn State: -165
  • Purdue: +140

Total:

54.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Trends

  • Penn State is 12-12 against the spread (ATS) as a road favorite under James Franklin
  • Penn State went 2-3 straight up (SU) on the road last season
  • Purdue is 8-5 ATS as a home underdog under Jeff Brohm
  • Purdue went 4-2 SU at home last season

Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

This should be a strong Purdue team based on preseason expectations. The team has a win total of 7.5, but can the team make up for the loss of do-it-all receiver David Bell (93 catches, 1,286 yards last season)? The Boilermakers bring back Aidan O'Connell under center, who passed for 3,712 yards last season, but there are questions as to who he is passing and handing it off to.

Penn State returns quarterback Sean Clifford, who was banged up for most of the second half of the season, but the team must also replace an NFL receiver in Jahan Dotson. So while both offenses have returning quarterbacks, there are question marks.

The Nittany Lions should still have a stout defense under first year coordinator Manny Diaz with NFL caliber prospects back there like Joey Porter Jr, but I'm concerned about laying it with the visitors given this has been a strong spot for home underdogs.

Since 2012, Week 1 home underdogs in conference play are 19-11-2, good for a 63% hit rate. This looks like a dog or pass spot with some question marks on both teams and a team that thrives at home in a great situation.

LEAN: Purdue +3 (+100)

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