Pennsylvania vs. Yale Prediction and Odds in Ivy League Conference Tournament Semifinals (Back Bulldog Bullies)

The 12-15 #3 Pennsylvania Quakers take on the 17-11 #2 Yale Bulldogs in the Ivy League Conference Tournament Semifinals at 2:00 PM EST today.

Our own Donnavan Smoot previewed the unique tournament here - only four teams make the conference tournament so neither team has played in the last week. They split the season series with Penn earning an eight-point victory in January and Yale getting revenge with a nine-point win in June.

Donnavan identified Pennsylvania as a dark horse, but they come in having lost three of four after winning five straight while the Bulldogs have won nine of 11. Can the Quakers pull off another upset win or will Yale keep their season alive and cover as short favorites?

Let's take a peak at the odds at WynnBET to see where the value lies in this Ivy League Conference Tournament Semifinal matchup:

Pennsylvania vs Yale Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Pennsylvania +3 (-110)
• Yale -3 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Pennsylvania: +130
• Yale: -160

Total:

• 145 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pennsylvania vs Yale Prediction and Pick

There's a few factors that lead me to side with Yale here but they center around one theme: the Bulldogs will bully the Quakers inside.

First, Penn is atrocious defensively. They're in the 0 percentile in defensive rating over their last five thanks to a suspect interior that's allowed opponents to shoot 52.2% from two-point range on the season, good for 274th in the country. Yale is in the 89th percentile in two-point attempts per game and 73rd in field goal percentage in the paint in their previous five games, so their offense is built to exploit what the Quakers are bad at.

Second, free throws. You need to get to the line in a tournament environment and Penn is in the 3rd percentile in their last five in free throw attempt rate while Yale is in the 80th. Especially with an advantage inside, I expect the Bulldogs to work the ball down low and rack up fouls against a Quakers defense that already averages just under 18 fouls per game.

Finally, rebounding. This all plays into the frontcourt advantage the Bulldogs possess. In those previous five contests, they're in the 82nd percentile in defensive rebounding percentage while Penn is in the 36th. Yale should rack up second-chance opportunities all game while preventing the Quakers from doing the same.

Add it all up and I love the value on the favorites to cover the modest spread. Yale has covered the spread in five of their last seven and I expect them to continue that trend here.

Pick: Yale -3 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.