Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Chris Paul, Heat-Nets, Warriors-Thunder)
By Peter Dewey
The NBA has a pair of standalone games on NBA TV for Thursday night's slate, so I figured we'd place a pair of bets for each game!
After a 1-1 showing on Wednesday (Bradley Beal sat out, voiding our prop), I'm looking to stay on the positive side for the season on Thursday night. So, we have a variety of plays for the action.
I make a pick on a side -- one spread and one moneyline -- for each game tonight, and I have a player prop parlay and a straight-up player prop to consider as well.
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With several key players out tonight in Miami (Ben Simmons, Tyler Herro, Cam Thomas in the Miami Heat-Brooklyn Nets matchup) and Golden State (Draymond Green and Steph Curry are out) there are some other players we can rely on to make things happen in the prop market tonight.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 39-36-1 (+0.01 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 664-593-10 (+39.94 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Chris Paul UNDER 28.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
- Oklahoma City Thunder ML (-148) vs. Golden State Warriors
- Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-110) vs. Miami Heat
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Player Prop Parlay (-120)
Chris Paul UNDER 28.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
I know Steph Curry and Draymond Green are out, but this number is way too high for Chris Paul on Thursday night.
CP3 finished with 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists (24 PRA) on Tuesday night despite Klay Thompson also getting ejected from that game.
I don’t think Paul is looking to score at a high level these days, and that limits his ceiling in a PRA prop. Paul’s highest PRA total – outside of Tuesday – this season is 29, and that came in the season opener when he took 15 shots. He hasn’t attempted that many shots in a game since.
With Thompson back in the lineup, I expect Paul to take a little bit of a back seat scoring the ball. While his assists may go up, I don’t think it will be enough to clear this lofty number.
Oklahoma City Thunder ML (-148) vs. Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are just 1-4 at home this season, and now they have to play without their best offensive and defensive players on Thursday night against a red-hot OKC team.
I’m not buying the Warriors to win here, as I don’t think they’ll have the offense to keep up with OKC, who is ninth in the NBA in offensive rating this season.
Not only are the Thunder 7-4 straight up, but they have the second-best record against the spread in the NBA at 8-3 this season. I see no reason to fade them here with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Chet Holmgren all healthy.
Chase Center is a tough place to play, but the Warriors haven’t taken advantage of it this season. I don’t see them doing so without Curry. The team is just 81-143 all-time when Curry sits during his career.
Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-110) vs. Miami Heat
There isn't a team in the NBA better against the spread this season than the Nets, as they are 9-1-1 ATS through their first 11 games.
Even with Simmons and Thomas out tonight, I wouldn't be shocked to see Brooklyn at least cover in this matchup.
Miami has struggled as a home favorite – going 0-4 against the spread – and the team is going to be down a key offensive player in Herro in this game.
While rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has played well and Caleb Martin is back, I am not sold on Miami’s offense, which ranks just 23rd in the league.
The Nets still have key players like Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Nic Claxton, and Spencer Dinwiddie active, so I think the team’s rotation will be deep enough to compete in this game.
While Miami has been a great team in terms of winning games – especially in the playoffs – in recent seasons, the team is just 14-30-2 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of last season.
Take the points with Brooklyn tonight.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Player Prop Parlay (-120)
- OVER 6.5 Points
- OVER 2.5 Rebounds
Miami rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been impressive with Herro out, and I don’t mind moving his prop lines from 8.5 points and 3.5 rebounds to 6.5 and 2.5 in a parlay tonight.
The reason is there’s a chance Jaquez’s minutes take a hit with Caleb Martin (knee) returning to action tonight. Still, there are plenty of reasons to like Jaquez here.
In the last three games with Herro out, Jaquez has attempted 17, 10, and 13 shots – scoring 20, 11, and 17 points in those games. He’s also played over 32 minutes in each of those contests.
Erik Spoelstra trusts the rookie, and it’s worth noting that Jaquez cleared this line in his three previous games before Herro went down with an ankle injury.
On the season, Jaquez has seven or more points in eight of 11 games and three or more rebounds in seven of 11 games.
He’s worth a shot in this parlay tonight – especially if he pushes 30 minutes of action.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.