Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Damian Lillard, Steph Curry, LeBron James)

The NBA has a loaded eight-game slate on Wednesday night, and there are prop bets galore to place on tonight's action.

I'm targeting some of the game's biggest stars, including LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Damian Lillard in tonight's plays, which feature two sides and EIGHT prop bets for the action on March 6.

Let's break down each of these picks:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 253-237-10 (-1.10 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 878-795-19 (+38.84 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Orlando Magic -7.5 (-110) vs. Washington Wizards – 0.5 unit
• Saddiq Bey OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115) – 0.5 unit
• John Collins OVER 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Keyonte George OVER 4.5 Assists (+114) – 0.5 unit
• Oklahoma City Thunder -13 (-110) vs. Portland Trail Blazers – 0.5 unit
• Stephen Curry OVER 8.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Damian Lillard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-150) – 0.5 unit
• Austin Reaves OVER 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+230) – 0.5 unit
• LeBron James OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160) – 0.5 unit

Orlando Magic -7.5 (-110) vs. Washington Wizards – 0.5 unit

There is no way I can trust Washington in this game, especially with the team on a 15-game losing streak. 

The Wizards fell apart on the road against Utah on Monday, allowing a massive run to blow a lead – and the cover as underdogs – and I won’t be fooled by them again. 

Washington has been much worse at home against the spread, going 8-16 as a home underdog. 

Now, it’s taking on an Orlando team that is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite and has been one of the best teams in the league against the spread all season. 

The Magic know they need this game to hang in the Eastern Conference playoff standings (now the No. 4 seed after Tuesday’s win), so don’t be shocked if they make quick work of Washington tonight. 

Saddiq Bey OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-115) – 0.5 unit

Atlanta Hawks wing Saddiq Bey has made multiple shots from beyond the arc in nine of his last 12 games, but I think this is a chance to buy low on him after a 1-for-7 night against the New York Knicks on Tuesday night. 

Bey is attempting 5.8 3-pointers per game over his last 12, averaging 2.2 makes per night. Yet, he’s just -115 to hit multiple 3s against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that ranks in the middle of the pack (12th) in opponent 3-point percentage this season. 

Bey has played three games against the Cavs this season, clearing this prop once. The other two games? He shot a combined 1-for-13 from 3. That may seem like a downside to this prop, but he shot six and seven shots from deep in those games. 

If the Cavs are comfortable giving up 3-point looks to Bey, he should see the volume necessary to clear this prop on Wednesday. 

John Collins OVER 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

Oh my do I love this prop for John Collins on Wednesday night against the Chicago Bulls. 

The Utah Jazz forward should be in for a massive workload with Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler all ruled out, and he put up 17 points and 15 rebounds on Monday night with Kessler and Markkanen sitting. 

Collins has cleared this prop in five of his last seven games, and he’s been dominating on the glass in his last 10. Collins is averaging 11.1 rebounds and 18.3 rebound chances per game over that stretch. Those numbers could go up with three rotation bigs out for the Jazz.

Chicago ranks just 15th in the league in rebounding percentage this season, so don’t be shocked if Collins leads the game in rebounding tonight. 

Keyonte George OVER 4.5 Assists (+114) – 0.5 unit

Jazz rookie guard Keyonte George is questionable with an illness tonight that limited him to just five minutes in his last game. 

But, if he plays, he’s a great value to go OVER his assists prop. 

Since moving into the starting lineup full-time, George is averaging 5.3 assists per game across nine contests, and that’s hurt by his one assist in five minutes on Monday. Before that, he was averaging 5.9 assists per game over his last eight starts. 

George has cleared 4.5 assists in eight of his last 11 games, averaging 9.4 potential assists per game over that stretch. 

This is a favorable matchup against a Bulls team that ranks 21st in the NBA in opponent assists per game this season. 

Oklahoma City Thunder -13 (-110) vs. Portland Trail Blazers – 0.5 unit

If there is one weakness in Oklahoma City’s impressive ATS record this season, it comes as a road favorite. 

The team is just 10-10 ATS in that spot this season, but I think the Thunder could be a little undervalued here. 

In the two-point win in their last meeting with Portland, the Thunder could not have played worse, making just seven shots from beyond the arc and shooting 64.3 percent from the line. On the other hand, Portland made 18-of-39 3-pointers in that game, but the team still couldn’t pull out a win. 

If the Thunder get back to their usual game on Wednesday, this could get ugly quickly, which we’ve seen in this matchup already this season. The Blazers won’t have a ton of firepower ready to go, with Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, and Malcolm Brogdon all out for this game and Deandre Ayton listed as doubtful. 

Plus, the Blazers are just 10-13 ATS as home dogs in the 2023-24 campaign. Give me OKC to cover on Wednesday.   

Stephen Curry OVER 8.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit

I’m going back to the well with a Steph Curry prop that hit for us last week against the New York Knicks. 

Curry is averaging 4.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game on the season, clearing this prop in eight of his last 11 games. Over that stretch, he’s averaging 4.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists per night. 

Despite playing just one half against Boston due to a knee injury, Curry had four rebounds and assists in 16 minutes. 

I think this matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks lines up well for him, as the Bucks play at the No. 5 pace in the NBA, which means there will be plenty of possessions to rack up the stats tonight. 

Damian Lillard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-150) – 0.5 unit

This prop could be a steal for Damian Lillard, especially if Giannis Antetokounpo (questionable, Achilles) misses his second straight game. 

Lillard is averaging 2.9 made 3-pointers on 8.5 attempts per game this season, and he’s cleared 2.5 made treys in five straight games. 

The Warriors do defend the 3-ball well, ranking eighth in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage, but they are still 16th in the league in opponent 3s made per game. 

If Giannis sits, Dame’s workload is going to increase in a big way with Khris Middleton already ruled out for the Bucks. Lillard has attempted at least eight shots from deep in eight of his last 10 games. 

I’d be shocked to see him fall short of this number if Giannis sits, and I think he could clear it regardless given his season-long shooting numbers. 

Austin Reaves OVER 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit

Austin Reaves has been stuffing the stat sheet for the Los Angeles Lakers, and I think he will again on Wednesday against a Sacramento Kings team that likes to push the tempo (12th in the NBA in pace). 

Reaves is averaging 15.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game (25.3 PRA), and he’s cleared this prop in seven of his last 11 games. Over that stretch, Reaves has bumped his averages up to 16.3 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. 

So far this season, Reaves had two bad shooting games against the Kings, but he recorded nine points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists in his last matchup with the team. 

The Lakers guard is likely going to play 30-plus minutes and attempt around 10-13 shots in this game. That’s solid volume to get him close to this prop scoring the ball, and we’ve seen him stuff the stat sheet all season. I’ll go OVER in a game the Lakers need to have. 

Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+230) – 0.5 unit

Back on the Domantas Sabonis triple-double train?

I’m going to buy low on the NBA’s triple-double leader after he failed to hit this prop in three straight games. Before that, Sabonis has picked up a triple-double in eight of his previous 10 games. 

So why tonight?

Two of Sabonis’ misses in the triple-double market coincided with De’Aaron Fox missing time with an injury, and Sabonis’ assist numbers – which is really what we’re looking at – are still up over his last 10 games. He’s averaging 12.0 potential assists per game over that stretch. 

Before this cold stretch, Sabonis was hovering around +130 to record a triple-double on a nightly basis. I’ll get back on this prop with Fox back in action and the odds moving past 2/1. 

LeBron James OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160) – 0.5 unit

LeBron James, the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, has made two or more shots from beyond the arc in 16 of his last 18 games, so I’m going to lay the juice on this prop for him against the Kings. 

James is shooting a career-high 40.7 percent from 3 this season, and he’s attempted at least five shots from beyond the arc in eight of his last 11 games. In two meetings against the Kings, he’s attempted seven and eight 3-balls, hitting three shots from deep in each game. 

The Kings come into this game ranking 21st in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game this season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.