Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Bobby Portis, Mavs-Heat)

The name of the game for Wednesday’s NBA slate is injuries, as the Los Angeles Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies and others are sitting several key players that makes it tough to bet on their games.

Due to that, and several teams playing the second night of a back-to-back, I have just two NBA Best Bets for April 10. After a 2-2 showing yesterday, let’s try to sweep this slate as the regular season nears an end.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 318-295-13 (+0.27 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 943-853-21 (+40.21 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-122) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit
• Bobby Portis to Record a Double-Double (+125) – 0.5 unit

Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-122) vs. Miami Heat – 0.5 unit

With Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic both off the injury report in this game, I’m all in on Dallas on the second night of a back-to-back. 

The Mavs come into this game on a four-game winning streak (they’ve also taken nine of their last 10), and they have a chance to lock up the No. 5 seed – at least – in the Western Conference if they close out these last couple games strong.

There are two key trends that I love for Dallas in this game, and I have a hard time not taking it every time these trends fire: 

• Dallas is 10-3 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back
• Dallas is 18-4 ATS as a road favorite

Not only that, but Miami is the worst team in the NBA against the spread as a home underdog, going 1-8.

The Heat are in trouble after playing a double overtime game last night, as they’ll likely have some tired legs against one of the hottest teams in the NBA.

Dallas is an easy moneyline bet at this price. 

Bobby Portis to Record a Double-Double (+125) – 0.5 unit

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have both been ruled out for tonight’s game against Orlando, which is becoming a must-win for the Bucks who have just a one-game lead on the No. 2 spot over the New York Knicks.

When Antetokounmpo has sat this season, Portis has gone off, averaging 22.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game across six matchups. 

In four of those matchups (his last four), Portis has recorded a double-double. With his points and rebounds prop in the mid-to-high 20s, I’d rather get plus money on Bobby P to pick a double-double against a tough Orlando defense. 

There should be plenty of touches for the veteran forward with two of Milwaukee’s top three players down.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.