Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Bradley Beal, Celtics-Cavs)

Tuesday's NBA action features a pair of great games on national television (the Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets), and I'm betting on both games in some capacity.

After a down showing on Monday, can Tuesday's slate get this season's picks back on track?

Tonight, I have four different plays, including three prop bets, that I'm eyeing in the Association. Let's talk some ball and break down these picks:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 251-235-10 (-0.98 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 876-793-19 (+38.97 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Immanuel Quickley OVER 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Jabari Smith Jr. UNDER 15.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Bradley Beal OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Boston Celtics -8 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit

Immanuel Quickley OVER 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit

In his first game without Scottie Barnes on Sunday, Immanuel Quickley shot 6-for-14 from the field, 2-for-7 from 3 and 8-for-8 from the line on his way to a 22-point game. He also added 11 assists and seven rebounds, commanding the offense for Toronto all night. 

With Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Bruce Brown all out for this game, Quickley is going to have the ball in his hands a lot to run this offense. 

After going for 40 PRA on Sunday, I’m surprised to see Quickley’s prop drop from 33.5 to 32.5 in this game. Quickley’s cleared 32.5 PRA in four of his last six games. 

New Orleans is a much better defensive team than Charlotte, but the Raptors point guard is going to see another game with a ton of usage tonight. I’ll bet on him paying that off. 

Jabari Smith Jr. UNDER 15.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

I’m not buying this recent hot stretch for Jabari Smith Jr. – or his elevated points prop on Tuesday night. 

In two meetings against the San Antonio Spurs this season, including one that went to overtime, Smith has scored 13 and nine points, failing to clear this total both times. 

While he did have a three-game stretch with 18 or more points, he’s gone UNDER this number in back-to-back contests. On the season, Smith has cleared 15.5 points just 21 times in 55 games. 

San Antonio’s defense is one of the weaker units in the NBA, but Smith doesn’t get the high-volume of shots (10.9 field goal attempts per game) for me to trust him here. There’s a reason he’s averaging just 13.4 points per game on the season. 

Bradley Beal OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

So far this season, Bradley Beal is averaging 22.6 points, 4.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds in five games without Devin Booker in the lineup – including a 31-point game against Oklahoma City in his last outing. 

Beal has cleared this prop in all four of the games that he played 30 or more minutes, and he played 34 minutes on Sunday against OKC despite Frank Vogel saying he may be on a minutes restriction. 

Overall this season, Beal is averaging 18.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game (27.0 PRA). He should see an uptick in usage without Booker, as he’s attempted 17 or more shots in three of the five games without him this season. 

Boston Celtics -8 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit

This game is marred by injuries, with the Boston Celtics listing Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis as questionable while Donovan Mitchell is out for the Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Cleveland is 7-6 in games that Mitchell misses this season, but the team is also just 1-3 in the last four that he’s sat out – with the only win coming against Detroit. 

The Cavs haven't exactly been great as a home dog this season (2-4 ATS), while Boston has turned things around as a road favorite. The team has covered in nine of its last 14 games as a road favorite.

After watching Boston wreak havoc on the rest of the NBA over this 11-game winning streak, I have to lay the points with the team here against a banged up Cavs team. 

With New York Knicks props not released as of the writing of this article due to Jalen Brunson’s questionable status, check my Twitter/X (@peterdewey2) and BetStamp (@peter2dewey) for any plays I may add in the prop market in that game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.