Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Cameron Johnson, Obi Toppin)

After making a ton of bets on Christmas Day, I'm toning it down a little for the nine-game NBA slate on Tuesday night.

There are still four plays -- including a pair for Brooklyn Nets wing Cameron Johnson -- but there are a few too many injuries for my liking on Tuesday.

The big storyline tonight is with the Detroit Pistons, who could set the consecutive loss record if they lose as six-point dogs to Brooklyn tonight. I have three props and one side for tonight's action.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 104-94-6 (-3.72 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 729-652-15 (+36.23 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Cameron Johnson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+110) – 0.5 unit
• Cameron Johnson OVER 14.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Obi Toppin UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
• Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-135) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Cameron Johnson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+110) – 0.5 unit

Johnson had a big game against the Pistons on Saturday, scoring 18 points on 6-of-10 shooting from the field. Since a rough road trip, Johnson has hit nine of his 17 shots from beyond the arc for the Nets. 

Brooklyn is back on the road here, but I don’t mind taking Johnson to hit three or more shots from deep. In 22 games this season, Johnson has 13 games with at least three made treys. 

Not only that, but he’s attempted at least five shots from 3-point range in 19 of his 22 games. That gives him a solid floor for this prop. 

At plus money, it’s worth a shot with a half-unit play – especially since we have another angle for Johnson. 

Cameron Johnson OVER 14.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

Since Johnson is a 3-point prop target, I like his points OVER as well. The bright side is, these props aren’t too dependent on each other. 

Johnson scored 18 points with just two made 3s in his last game, but he also has two games this month with three made treys and 14 or fewer points. So, it’s possible he hits one of these without hitting the other, and it’s also possible he hits both. 

Since the team’s West Coast trip, Johnson has 18, 17 and 20 points in three games. He’s scored 15 or more points in 12 of 22 games. 

Obi Toppin UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-115)

I’m all about fading Obi Toppin’s rebounding prop against a Houston Rockets team that ranks No. 11 in the NBA in rebounding percentage. 

Toppin has cleared this line in each of his last two games, but he has just seven games all season (in 28 appearances) where he’s grabbed five or more boards. 

Even with five of those games coming this month, Toppin is still averaging just 3.6 rebounds per game. He’s a fade candidate against a strong rebounding – and home team – in Houston. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-135) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

I was hesitant to take this play early in the day, but Josh Giddey is now listed as available for the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Both Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota) and Jalen Williams (OKC) are questionable. 

The Thunder are one of the best teams against the spread as a home favorite this season (8-3) while the Timberwolves are just 2-4 ATS as road dogs. 

While the Wolves are the No. 1 defense in the NBA this season, OKC is third in net rating (ahead of Minnesota who is No. 4). 

If Towns ends up sitting, this line will move in favor of the Thunder. I like taking them with a few injuries still to be decided.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.