Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for D'Angelo Russell, CJ McCollum, More)
By Peter Dewey
Only four games in the NBA on Tuesday night? Why don’t we make five bets!
While we don’t have a massive slate like Monday or the upcoming action on Wednesday night, Tuesday’s action features some great playoff-caliber teams facing off:
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings
There is a ton of the line for playoff positioning tonight, but per usual, the prop market is where I’m finding my favorite plays.
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 292-273-13 (-0.18 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 917-831-21 (+39.76 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- D’Angelo Russell OVER 7.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
- Terry Rozier UNDER 23.5 Points and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit
- Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit
- Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unit
- CJ McCollum OVER 4.5 Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
D’Angelo Russell OVER 7.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
This is a prime matchup for D’Angelo Russell, who carried the load for the Lakers in the win over Milwaukee earlier this season.
D’Lo is averaging 6.3 assists per game this season, but his playmaking role skyrockets for the team when LeBron James is out.
In nine games this season without LeBron, Russell is averaging 10.7 assists per game, clearing this line in all nine games.
The Bucks have been better on defense since Doc Rivers took over, but they still allowed Russell to pick up 44 points and nine dimes in their last meeting with Los Angeles. Milwaukee is also just 16th in the NBA in opponent assists allowed per game.
Terry Rozier UNDER 23.5 Points and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit
I’m fading Terry Rozier tonight, as the Miami Heat guard simply hasn’t put up big enough scoring – or assist – numbers to be trusted at this number.
Since joining Miami, Rozier has cleared 23.5 points and assists just six times in 24 games. He’s averaging 15.5 points and 5.1 assists per game over that stretch.
Plus, he’s gone over this prop just three times since the All-Star break, scoring 17, 24, and 27 points in those games. Unless Rozier has a big scoring night, he’s doubtful (hitting the UNDER 75 percent of the time) to go OVER this prop in a Miami uniform.
Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit
These may not be the Lakers of old when LeBron James isn't able to play.
After going 8-18 without LeBron in the 2021-22 season and 13-14 without him in the 2022-23 season, the Lakers are 5-4 straight up without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer this season.
A big reason for that has been the health of Anthony Davis, but players like Russell (especially in the last meeting against the Bucks) and Austin Reaves (who carried the Lakers to a win in Boston this season) have also stepped up when called upon.
The Lakers also have just two losses by more than seven points without James, one coming against the Los Angeles Clippers and the other coming against the Golden State Warriors right out of the All-Star break.
Milwaukee has been improved on the defensive end of the floor under Doc Rivers, but the team is still just 15-16-1 against the spread as a home favorite. Can we trust the Bucks, who lost outright as road favorites in Los Angeles, to cover this number?
I’m not sold.
The Lakers are average against the spread as a road dog – going 11-10 ATS this season – but the team loses those games by an average margin of just 5.7 points per game.
Milwaukee’s weakness, as many expected, has been its guard defense, letting Russell torch the team earlier this season. With the Lakers still fighting for a play-in spot and the Bucks looking locked into the No. 2 seed in the East, Los Angeles has a lot more to play for in this matchup.
Even with James out, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Lakers hang around in this one.
Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unit
I’m surprised to see this prop below 30.5 points for Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 30.7 points per game on the season.
Oddsmakers may be factoring in for a blowout, but as I mentioned above, I think the Lakers are going to hang around in this matchup
What does that mean for Giannis? Plenty of minutes – and shots – to win Milwaukee this game.
The MVP candidate had 34 points on 23 shots in his last meeting with the Lakers, putting up a triple-double in the process. Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more points six times in his last eight games, so I don’t mind laying a little juice to get him at this discounted number.
CJ McCollum OVER 4.5 Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
Back to the well with a CJ McCollum prop that hit for us on Sunday, as the New Orleans Pelicans guard will take on a bigger playmaking role with Brandon Ingram out once again on Tuesday.
In seven games without Ingram this season, CJ is averaging 5.1 assists per game, picking up five or more dimes in six of those seven games.
He finished with seven assists in each of his last two games without Ingram, and now he gets an Oklahoma City Thunder team that ranks 19th in the NBA in opponent assists per game.
This is a must-bet for CJ given his history without BI in the lineup.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.