Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Devin Vassell, Jaylen Brown)

The NBA is blessing us with a 12-game slate on Wednesday night to get the 2023-24 season into full swing, and there are four bets that I am taking for the action on Oct. 25. 

Tuesday’s opening night action was a little disappointing, as Kevin Durant shot just 7-for-22 from the floor and Andrew Wiggins did not attack the glass at all, crushing a pair of our props. 

However, those that have been following the past few years know that we’re all about the process here and that the results will come. 

That’s why I’m returning to the prop market for two of tonight’s four plays. 

Let’s break down those picks, and a great promo offer to get you started on betting the NBA this season:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 1-3 (-1.25 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 626-560-9 (+38.69 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Jaylen Brown OVER 20.5 Points (-125)
• Devin Vassell OVER 16.5 Points (-135)
• Sacramento Kings ML (-125) vs. Utah Jazz
• Oklahoma City Thunder ML (+105) vs. Chicago Bulls

If you’re looking to tail any of these bets, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users that sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $200 in bonus bets and three months free of NBA League Pass!

Jaylen Brown OVER 20.5 Points (-125)

I almost did a double take when I saw this prop line for Jaylen Brown, who has cleared this line in nine of his last 10 games against New York. 

Brown averaged over 26 points per game last season, and he dominated the Knicks in three appearances, scoring 30, 22 and 29 points in those games. 

These two teams were both top five in the league in offensive rating a season ago, so we could see a high-scoring affair in New York. 

Brown is a volume shooter and scorer who has averaged at least 23.6 points per game in three straight seasons. This is a great value to start the season. 

Devin Vassell OVER 16.5 Points (-135)

I’m buying Devin Vassell, who signed a massive extension with the San Antonio Spurs this offseason. 

The former first-round pick averaged 18.5 points per game last season despite dealing with injuries that limited him to just 38 games. 

Oddsmakers have Keldon Johnson and Victor Wembanyama with higher scoring props than Vassell, but he led the team at points in the preseason. A high-volume shooter (15.7 field goal attempts, 7.0 3-point attempts per game last season), Vassell is coming off a career season shooting the ball. 

I think he could push 20 points on Wednesday night. 

Sacramento Kings ML (-125) vs. Utah Jazz

The Sacramento Kings were one of the best teams in the NBA last season, earning the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. 

They did that by posting the best against the spread record on the road in the NBA – going 29-15 ATS in road games in the 2022-23 campaign. 

Now, they enter the 2023-24 season as a slight favorite against Lauri Markkanen and the Utah Jazz. Utah didn’t make major upgrades, although it did add John Collins in a trade with Atlanta. 

Still, I’m not sold on the Jazz taking a major leap this season after the team wilted down the stretch of the 2022-23 campaign. 

Sacramento has an elite offensive attack, and I think we’re getting the team at a bit of a discount on the road in this spot. 

Oklahoma City Thunder ML (+105) vs. Chicago Bulls

A little upset pick on Wednesday? Why not!

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a popular pick to make a leap this season, and I think they’re live to take down a Chicago Bulls team that underachieved last season. 

Chicago is running back a very similar roster in the 2023-24 season, and I can’t help but consider an OKC team that was 20-12-3 against the spread as a road dog last season, winning 14 of those games straight up. 

With Chet Holmgren in the fold, the Thunder have one of the best young rosters in the NBA. I wouldn’t be shocked if they upset the Bulls on opening night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.