Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Giannis, Grizz, Celtics, Simons)

Need storylines on Tuesday? Adams Silver's NBA has plenty of them.

Ja Morant makes his return from a 25-game suspension for the Memphis Grizzlies on TNT against the New Orleans Pelicans, and I have a spread pick for that game.

Then, the other nationally televised game features an NBA Finals rematch from the 2021-22 season between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.

The only thing missing is a Victor Wembanyama-Giannis Antetokounmpo matchup, which was foiled when the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft was ruled out with an ankle injury. So, I bet a Giannis prop.

Four games, four plays on this beautiful Tuesday. Let's talk ball.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 91-79-3 (+1.11 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 716-637-12 (+41.05 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 (-110) vs. New Orleans Pelicans
• Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
• Boston Celtics -5.5 (-112) vs. Golden State Warriors
• Anfernee Simons OVER 30.5 Points and Assists (-110)

Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 (-110) vs. New Orleans Pelicans

I bet on this game in the morning, and the line has since come crashing down to Memphis +7 with Zion Williamson (illness) listed as questionable. 

Still, a CLV trophy doesn’t matter if the team can’t keep this close in Ja Morant’s season debut. 

Memphis has not been good as a road underdog this season, going 3-6 against the spread in nine games, but things should change with Morant in the lineup. 

Over the last two seasons, the Grizzlies have been a great team with Morant in the lineup, going 40-21 in 61 games last season and 36-21 with him in the 2021-22 season. 

Memphis was blown out by the Oklahoma City Thunder last night, but head coach Taylor Jenkins was able to rest his best players, playing Jaren Jackson Jr. just 25 minutes and Desmond Bane only 28 minutes. 

I expect the Grizzlies to at least hang around despite being on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Fading Giannis Antetokounmpo against one of the league’s worst defenses? It’s not about Giannis, it’s about the number. 

The Milwaukee Bucks are likely going to win this game against the San Antonio Spurs in a blowout, which means Giannis will get some extra rest compared to most games. 

In recent matchups against Detroit (36 PRA) and New York (48 PRA) where he played less than 35 minutes, Giannis didn’t clear this number, and it’s something that’s pretty consistent with this season.  He also failed to go OVER this in 39 minutes against Houston in the Bucks’ last game.

Giannis has cleared 50.5 PRA just one time in his last nine games (64 points against the Pacers), and only seven total times in 24 games. I think the Bucks win by enough on Tuesday where he plays around 30 minutes, leading to an UNDER. 

Boston Celtics -5.5 (-112) vs. Golden State Warriors

Yes, Boston is just 2-7-2 against the spread as a road favorite, but oddsmakers are overvaluing the Golden State Warriors in the market. 

Just look at where these teams rank in several key metrics this season:

Golden State Warriors

• Net rating: 19th
• Offensive rating: 16th
• Defensive rating: 16th
• Effective field goal percentage: 19th
• Rebounding percentage: 4th
• Turnover percentage: 28th

Boston Celtics

• Net rating: 2nd
• Offensive rating: 6th
• Defensive rating: 2nd
• Effective field goal percentage: 3rd
• Rebounding percentage: 5th
• Turnover percentage: 17th

Golden State is going to need someone other than Steph Curry to step up to compete with this Boston offense. I just don’t see it happening, especially with the Warriors struggling at home (just 6-6 this season). 

Anfernee Simons OVER 30.5 Points and Assists (-110)

Portland Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons has been handed the keys to the offense since returning from a thumb injury, and he’s thriving. 

Simons has posted 32, 38, 42, 15 (in just 22 minutes), 39 and 31 points and assists over his last six games since returning. 

The key for me here? Simons’ usage.

The former first-round pick has taken 20-plus shots in five of those six games, including a 27-shot performance against Golden State. The usage is going to be there, and Simons has been a solid playmaker this season, averaging 5.6 assists per game. 

Don’t sleep on him against Phoenix.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.